OFFICIAL poverty statistics show that less than 8 percent of Filipino senior citizens are poor. But new research presented this week suggests the number of people at economic risk is three times higher.
A study on household vulnerability to income poverty, discussed at the recent Inclusive Social Protection Services in the Philippines’ Policy and Research Forum, found that while 7.8 percent of senior citizens were classified as poor in 2023, 24 percent were vulnerable to falling into poverty.
The forum was organized by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and Australia’s Social Protection, Inclusion, and Gender Equality program (Spring).
PIDS Supervising Research Specialist Deanne Lorraine Cabalfin, who presented the findings, said current poverty measures capture only those already below the threshold. They do not account for households just above it that could slip back due to illness, loss of income, or other shocks.
The official poverty threshold tracks whether a household can afford a basic basket of food and non-food needs at a given time.
For older Filipinos, who often rely on fixed incomes and face rising health care costs, that snapshot may understate risk.
"For older Filipinos, whose incomes are often fixed and whose health care needs tend to increase with age, vulnerability can provide a more comprehensive picture of economic insecurity than poverty status alone," Cabalfin said.
The study flagged particular groups. Vulnerability climbed to nearly 45 percent among seniors living in mixed-generation households with children, even as poverty rates in those households remained relatively low.
Cabalfin also pointed to differences by sex and living arrangement. Older women living alone tend to depend heavily on remittances. Older men living alone were found to have the fewest assets.
Across older households, a larger share of income goes to food and health care, leaving little buffer for emergencies.
Women face additional gaps, often reaching old age with less savings and weaker pension coverage.
The research also noted that disability, social isolation, and Indigenous identity can compound economic insecurity.
Other data shared at the forum underscored gaps in the current system.
Spring Program Social Protection Specialist Aura Sevilla said 42 percent of Filipinos aged 60 and above have no pension.
Among those covered by the Social Security System (SSS), nearly one-third receive less than P3,000 a month.
The government’s social pension for indigent seniors provides P1,000 monthly and continues to face targeting problems, with some eligible seniors left out and some non-indigent beneficiaries included.
To address this, Cabalfin called for changes in how the government identifies beneficiaries.
"We need to regularly measure vulnerability alongside poverty so that the program targeting reflects the real risks people face," she said.
Cabalfin urged a fiscally sustainable expansion of social pensions and the institutionalization of vulnerability assessments alongside poverty statistics.
Australian Embassy Second Secretary Claire Bowyer said the focus now is on how systems adapt.
“The question is no longer whether social protection matters. The question is how we can make it more responsive, more inclusive, and better equipped to support people through change and uncertainty,” Bowyer said.
PIDS President Philip Arnold Tuaño said research should lead to concrete reforms.
“Research achieves its greatest value when it improves people’s lives,” Tuaño said.
Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Director Girlie Grace Casimiro-Igtiben cited ongoing reforms aimed at improving delivery.
These include the Social Protection Operational Framework, the Social Protection Floor, the shift to digital payments for 4Ps beneficiaries, and the national ID rollout.
Casimiro-Igtiben said the initiatives are intended to make programs more integrated and accessible, though challenges remain.
Australia has partnered with the Philippines on social protection for more than 20 years.
Spring, a five-year bilateral program, supports work to strengthen national social protection policies and systems, improve gender-responsive budgeting and planning, and enhance data to better reach vulnerable groups, including persons with disabilities and Indigenous peoples.
Researchers said the findings point to a need to look past a single poverty rate when designing assistance for older Filipinos.
By tracking vulnerability regularly, they argued, programs can better identify seniors who are not poor today but are at high risk tomorrow.