WASHINGTON, May 15 — The majority of US manufacturing firms expect revenues to decline sharply this year amid the coronavirus economic lockdowns, pushing any recovery back to 2021, according to an industry survey released today.
Many more firms now say they plan to cut jobs compared to the December survey, while most manufacturers are reducing investment as well, according to the Semiannual Economic Forecast by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The dismal outlook is widespread, covering all of the services industries — by far the largest segment of the US economy — and all but two manufacturing sectors: apparel and food, beverage and tobacco products, ISM said.
“With 15 of the 18 manufacturing sector industries — including five of the six big industry sectors — predicting revenue declines for 2020, panellists forecast that recovery will likely not occur until near the end of the year,” said Timothy R. Fiore, head of the manufacturing survey.
Among manufacturers, 58 per cent said revenues will decrease — on average, 21.2 per cent, the survey showed. Just 18 per cent of respondents say that revenues for 2020 will increase while another quarter expect no change.
In addition, 56 per cent said they expect to sharply reduce their capital spending this year, while only 10 per cent of respondents predict an increase — a sharp decline from December, when nearly a third of manufacturers were planning to ramp up spending.
Meanwhile, 57 per cent of non-manufacturing businesses say their revenues will decrease, on average, 20.1 per cent, ISM said, with 39 per cent saying they will cut investments.
That is “a dramatic reversal from 2019,” when all but one services industry were optimistic about rising revenues, said Anthony Nieves, head of the non-manufacturing survey.
But Nieves said the sector “will look to recover over the balance of 2020.”
The results closely track ISM’s two monthly surveys showing the growing impact of the measures to prevent the spread of the virus.
And in an economy that has lost over 30 million jobs since the pandemic hit, the responses to questions about employment showed a dramatic rise in the number of firms expecting to cut jobs: 39 per cent of manufacturing firms and 42 per cent of services companies. — AFP