PETALING JAYA: Political leaders who are contemplating a switch to another party should rethink their move.
History has shown that voters do not take kindly to such acts of disloyalty.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Azmi Hassan said politicians who abandon their parties for personal gains rather than ideological reasons would be dislodged quickly.
“The Malacca elections was a good example. Those who jumped ship were severely punished by the voters,” he told theSun.
Azmi said in most cases, politicians switch sides with hopes that they get to contest in the same seat they had won previously.
For instance, in the Malacca elections in November last year, many realised that they would lose if they remained in Bersatu. However, leaving the party did not help either.
Former chief minister Datuk Seri Idris Haron, who left Umno to join PKR, lost in Asahan while Datuk Nor Azman Hassan failed to retain Pantai Kundor despite also leaving Umno to join Amanah.
Azmi said a similar situation was developing in Johor.
“Many Bersatu assemblymen who had joined the party from Umno, are now in a quandary.
“If they fight under the Bersatu ticket again, they are likely to lose. However, there is no guarantee that they would get to defend their seats if they return to Umno,” he added.
Umno has made it very clear that those who wished to return to the party would only be accepted as ordinary members, giving them little to no chance of getting a seat to contest.
Azmi said some Bersatu members who switched to Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) were led to believe that they would have a better chance of winning in the polls.
“They know that they are unlikely to be given a seat to contest if they remain in Bersatu.”
Azmi expects Barisan Nasional (BN) to win again in Johor because Pakatan Harapan (PH) is still in disarray.
“The problem with PH is not because their members are jumping ship, but more because they are unable to decide on the mentri besar-designate.”
At the same time, Azmi said Bersatu, which was part of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance that also included Umno, has been weakened in Johor and many who joined the party from Umno are now worried about their future.
Umno has announced that BN, of which it is the lynchpin, will no longer be working with Bersatu in the coming polls.
Malaysian Council of Professors senior fellow Dr Jeniri Amir said Bersatu’s poor performance in Malacca could have played a role in the mass exodus in Johor.
Recently, Bersatu lost more than 300 members from its Tanjung Piai division to Warisan, the fourth such mass crossover this year.
Earlier, all members of the Desa Harmoni branch of its Pasir Gudang division defected to Umno.
Former Johor Bersatu chief and incumbent Puteri Wangsa assemblyman Mazlan Bujang was the first to quit after the dissolution of the state assembly.
This was followed by former exco member and incumbent Larkin assemblyman Mohd Izhar Ahmad.
“The party itself was not very strong. It was the ex-Umno leaders who joined Bersatu that made it strong. They had initially thought that Bersatu and PH were the future.”
Jeniri said those who are leaving Bersatu would now be inclined to see Warisan and Umno as a better alternative.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi believes the perception that BN will win big in Johor has shaken the confidence of some Bersatu members.
He said those leaving the party are looking for a soft landing, either in Umno or Warisan, adding that many ordinary members are also leaving Bersatu after learning that their leaders may not be nominated to contest in the elections.