HONG KONG, Feb 7 — The euro was near Friday’s three-week high this morning, after the European Central Bank’s hawkish turn last week, but analysts said further short-term gains looked less likely with looming Fed tightening supporting the dollar.
Meanwhile, in cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin held around a two week high.
Investors this week will be watching for US inflation data due Thursday, with a strong reading cementing expectations that the Fed will raise rates at its March meeting and hint at the possibility of a large 50 basis point rise.
The euro was last at US$1.1451 (RM4.79), not far from Friday’s high of US$1.4183, equalling mid-January’s top.
The yen was at 115.16 per dollar, and sterling was at US$1.35310, both in the middle of their recent ranges.
This left the dollar index at 95.461, having been given a late boost by strong US jobs data Friday at the end of a bruising week for the greenback.
It also could gain further in the short term.
“We see the risk of more USD upside in the near-term if interest rate markets price a greater chance of a 50bp hike in March. But last week’s hawkish turn by ECB President Christine Lagarde suggests any upside in the USD will be capped,” said Joe Capurso, head of international economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a morning note.
In the short term he added “with little fresh information from Europe likely this week to further boost market pricing for ECB hikes, material further upside to EUR is unlikely.”
Markets moved to price in a one-in-three chance the Fed might hike by a full 50 basis points in March following strong US jobs data Friday, and suggesting there is a reasonable chance rates will reach 1.5 per cent by year end.
This pushed US two-year yields higher, and this morning they were holding firm around a two-year high at 1.32 per cent.
Benchmark 10-year yields also held onto Friday’s gains and were at 1.9049 per cent.
This week there are also speeches by policy markers at the Fed and the British, European, Australian and Canadian central banks.
Klaas Knot, the Dutch Central Bank president and one of the more hawkish members of the ECB’s governing council, said yesterday he expects a hike in the fourth quarter of this year.
Bitcoin was trading at around US$41,800, having jumped 11 per cent late on Friday.
The Australian dollar was on the back foot at US$0.7071, with the Reserve Bank of Australia looking to be at the more dovish end of the central bank spectrum.
The Aussie is also weak against other currencies, and on Friday touched its lowest since September versus the euro. — Reuters
