PETALING JAYA: With numerous new players in the mix, the upcoming Johor state election would be a messy affair, but the impending results appear very clear to a political analyst.
Prof James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said there are only two main contenders in the polls, while the others are merely making up the numbers.
He pointed out that by not getting its act together, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is doing its main rival Barisan Nasional (BN) a great favour.
“There is Warisan, Pejuang and Muda, who are first timers in the arena, and there are only so many competitive seats where everyone is trying their luck,” he said when contacted yesterday.
In saying the winning coalition would score a decisive win, Chin said the new contenders would be mere “also-rans”.
“It would be like what we saw in Sarawak and Malacca, but there are many seats with more than three-cornered fights. A majority of the candidates would lose their deposits.
“Umno traditionally has a very good machinery in Johor,” he added, pointing out the party’s main advantage in the state.
Meanwhile, academician Dr Mohd Tajuddin Mohd Rasdi said it would be a mistake for analysts to think that a repeat of the Malacca election would happen in Johor.
“I think there are several differences that would make this election a fantastically interesting one for the (possible) GE15 scenario.”
According to Mohd Tajuddin, the issue of PKR using its own logo while DAP and Amanah are opting for the Pakatan Harapan logo is an interesting one.
While most political analysts say this shows that PH is doomed to fail and that it would be a walkover for Umno, Mohd Tajuddin said it may have huge implications for Malaysia beyond the Johor election.
“PKR and Anwar have been suffering under the Umno-PAS-Bersatu assault of being a DAP stooge. Now, this tactic will throw the Umno-PAS-Bersatu battle narrative into disarray,” he said.
Mohd Tajuddin opined that in war, it is important to confuse the enemy and strike during the confusion.
He added that the alliance between Amanah and DAP also brings a new equation to the floor.
“Amanah is the least strong of the three parties but it has an ideological Islamic base (aligned) with a socialist multiracial party in DAP.”
Mohd Tajuddin feels that DAP needs Amanah to counter the Chinese party narrative and Amanah needs the machinery of DAP to survive.
“What Malaysia needs is for these two parties to merge and produce a strong ideological and multiracial party that would sweep Malaysia onto a new age.”
He added that Muda is the only true breath of fresh air against the stink of the country’s old politics.
“With the automatic registration of Undi18, Muda is set to change the political landscape of Malaysia,” he said, adding that if the party can win one or two seats, it would be enough for it to carve a different future for Malaysia.