PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s “first past the post” rule in determining election winners has worked favourably for Barisan Nasional (BN), with its landslide win in Johor on Saturday.
However, scrutiny of the vote breakdown paints a different picture, say political analysts.
Of the total votes cast, 599,753 were for BN while 826,820 went to the Opposition, indicating the Opposition paid a heavy price for its disunity.
Political analyst Prof James Chin, however, said a win is a win, regardless of what the numbers show.
“Malaysia uses the Westminster system or Westminster parliamentary government. It does not matter whether they should be proud or not,” he said yesterday.
Chin added that BN went into the election confident of itself as a coalition, and it has achieved its aim by getting a two-thirds majority.
The election also focused on the youth vote, with the recently passed Undi18 Act.
Chin said as expected, Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) won only one seat and all the talk about young voters making a difference did not amount to much.
“Young voters are not very different from older voters, they also vote for the old established parties and not necessarily all of them will support Muda,” he said.
For other newcomers like Pejuang and Warisan, Chin said these parties do not stand a chance against established ones.
Chin said that the outcome of the Johor state election might point towards an earlier 15th general election (GE15).
“It could be as early as June, they (BN) are going to try as much as possible to ride on the momentum.”
Chin said the Opposition must start thinking about what to do with their leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who he claimed had made too many big mistakes.
“He made mistakes in Sarawak, Malacca and now, Johor. That is three big losses in a row and that is unforgivable.
“If Anwar remains the leader of the Opposition in GE15, Pakatan Harapan can kiss GE15 goodbye,” he said.
Meanwhile, Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said BN’s victory could indicate the coalition has regained the people’s confidence, despite the low voter turnout.
“As long as the Opposition is not united, defeat after defeat as in the Malacca, Sarawak and Johor state elections will be repeated in the next GE,” he said.
Awang Azman added that tarnishing their opponents without providing a concrete solution would not bring a positive impact and might even backfire.
“Mudslinging campaigns may have caused voters to stay away and not vote in the election,” he said.
Academician Prof Dr Tajuddin Mohd Rasdi said although BN won 40 out of 56 seats, a small voter turnout is hardly a mandate by the rakyat.
“A mere 54% voter turnout is not a big win,” he said.
However, according to the UCSI professor, among those who will be losing sleep would be Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
“For Muhyiddin, the small number of seats won by Perikatan Nasional (PN) is an indication the coalition is not very strong there.”
Tajuddin said the fact that no PN leaders showed up at their hotel for the announcement of the elction results was an indication that they knew their fate ahead of time.
On Pejuang’s performance in the state election, Tajuddin said its dismal showing could usher in new beginnings.
“This may also open the door for newcomers, young people such as Rafizi Ramli, Nurul Izzah and Syed Saddiq, to come to the forefront if they can seal a working relationship with Shafie Apdal’s Warisan and the forces in Sabah and Sarawak as well as unite against BN,” he added.