KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s export growth is likely to soar this month amid sharp commodity price increases, said CGS-CIMB.
The research house said commodity prices including palm oil, liquefied natural gas, crude petroleum and refined petroleum products have risen significantly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month.
“Commodities remained the star performers in February. These products accounted for 17% of Malaysia’s February export value,” it said in a note today.
CGS-CIMB said the current robust export growth is likely to be volatile, depending on the movement of global commodity prices as the underlying demand remains muted.
On Malaysia’s trade surplus, CGS-CIMB said it has widened slightly to RM19.8 billion in February, in line with market expectations but less than its forecast of RM21.6 billion.
It said due to a shorter month with festive season holidays, exports in February declined 7.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) in value, while imports fell 10.8% m-o-m.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, both exports and imports expanded at a slower-than-expected pace by 16.8% and 18.4%, respectively.
Meanwhile, CGS-CIMB said a special Employees Provident Fund (EPF) withdrawal of RM10,000 could prop up imports of consumption goods.
“We suspect this (EPF withdrawal) could lend some support to the imports of consumption goods.
“Primary food and beverages imports had contracted in February (-13.8% y-o-y and -40.0% m-o-m), leading to a slowdown in the overall imports of consumption goods,” it said. – Bernama