Sir Keir Starmer’s government enjoys a working majority in the House of Commons of 168. If Labour loses the by-election in Gorton and Denton, its majority will fall to 167.
Normally, a government with that kind of dominance of parliament would be able to set its course and stick to it, and there should be no question about the prime minister’s hold on office.
But this is not a normal by-election. This could be a defining test of what will happen to a political system that seems to be fragmenting before our eyes. What is also unusual about this election is that there are three possible outcomes, each equally likely, and each leading to very different consequences.
There have been two opinion polls in the constituency by reputable organisations, and they both showed that the Green, Reform and Labour candidates are within the margin of error of each other.
If Hannah Spencer, the Green Party candidate, were to win, it would be a disaster for the prime minister. His strategy has been to present the next general election as a choice between him and Nigel Farage. His implied argument is that Labour is the leading party of a tactical alliance against Reform – and that Green, Lib Dem and one-nation Conservative voters should rally behind his banner to stop Mr Farage from becoming prime minister.
But if the Green wins in Gorton and Denton, Labour’s claim to lead the progressive wing of politics will be undermined. Sir Keir’s pose as tough on immigration and welfare spending, which has been regarded as an attempt to appease Reform-minded voters, will have backfired by driving away voters on the other side of the spectrum.
If Ms Spencer wins, Zack Polanski will be tempted to regard it as a vindication of his “eco-populist” approach as the new party leader. He would be wise not to assume that the Greens’ success represents an endorsement of the party’s policies. Instead, he should take it as a prompt to ensure that the party’s policies could provide a realistic prospectus for government.
The party’s stance on climate change ought to be central to its platform, but seems to have been neglected in favour of the party moving into the space formerly occupied by Jeremy Corbyn. On green issues, the party’s hostility to market economics and, separately, to nuclear power, is an obstacle to progress. And the party’s policies on subjects as wide-ranging as drugs, Nato and open borders could also become liabilities.
But a Green win would undoubtedly strengthen the hand of those in the Labour Party who want a more clearly defined left-wing programme.
If Matt Goodwin, the Reform candidate, were to win, the implication would be very different. It would suggest that Sir Keir’s Reform-facing strategy – often associated with his recently departed chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney – was the right one. A Reform win would also strengthen demands in the Labour Party for electoral reform.
It would be an outrage in many eyes that Mr Goodwin should succeed because the anti-Reform parties were evenly divided. A preferential voting system would shut Reform out of this seat and indeed many others. On the other hand, this is a tricky argument for a Labour government elected on 34 per cent of the national vote to make.
The most remarkable result, however, would be a win for Angeliki Stogia, the Labour candidate. It would be a personal triumph for Sir Keir’s resilience, as symbolised by his decision to campaign in the constituency this week, which prime ministers do not always do.
After his brush with political mortality earlier this month, in the fallout from the publication of the Epstein files, when cabinet ministers had to be corralled into a round of ritual declarations of support, he will claim to have turned a corner.
Sir Keir would have been vindicated by – or would have got away with, at least – his decision to block Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and potential Labour leadership candidate, from standing as the candidate in the by-election.
Mr Burnham remains a popular politician in the area. As Colin Drury reports in his dispatch from the constituency, Kath Walsh, 57, a childminder, said: “He’s probably the only politician I wouldn’t cross the road to avoid these days.”
A Labour win would confirm Sir Keir’s claim to lead the anti-Reform coalition. But most importantly, it would reinforce the government’s argument that, after all the tough decisions and early difficulties, things are getting better for the country. Sir Keir listed the good news at Prime Minister’s Questions today: lower energy bills, lower inflation, lower interest rates and rising business confidence.
It may be that the Labour government has touched rock bottom, and is now well placed to benefit from a grudging acceptance by a weary electorate that ministers deserve a chance to prove themselves between now and the next general election.
In a country divided, under a political system showing signs of strain, the result in Gorton and Denton could point in any one of three very different directions. We must hope the voters choose correctly.
Read MoreReaders on what the Gorton and Denton by-election results will signal
