After Barisan Nasional (BN) successfully defended Johor from Pakatan Harapan (PH), political attention has now shifted to neighbouring Negeri Sembilan, where the upcoming state election could become a major indicator of Malaysia’s changing political landscape ahead of the next general election.
Located just south of Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan has a population of around 1.2 million people and covers 6,642 sq km, an area about nine times the size of Singapore.
A total of 889,490 voters will decide the outcome of the state election, which features 103 candidates competing for 36 state assembly seats.
Election timeline and voting details
Nomination Day was held on July 18, marking the start of a 14-day campaign that will end at 11.59pm on July 31.
Early voting will take place on July 28 for police officers, military personnel and election workers, while polling day is scheduled for August 1.
The Election Commission announced the dates on June 12 after caretaker Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun dissolved the state assembly on June 5.
Main parties and coalitions competing
The incumbent state government is led by Pakatan Harapan (PH), which is contesting all 36 seats. PH, a multi-ethnic coalition led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, is hoping to strengthen its position in the state.
Its federal partner, Barisan Nasional (BN), is contesting 25 seats as it looks to repeat its strong performance in Johor.
Meanwhile, opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) is contesting 11 seats under a formal understanding aimed at avoiding direct clashes with BN.
However, PN’s internal dynamics have shifted. Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) remains part of PN but will contest 24 seats under its own logo due to disagreements with ally PAS.
In its place, Bersatu splinter party Parti Wawasan Negara, led by Hamzah Zainudin, will contest four seats under the PN banner. This will be the party’s first election after joining the opposition coalition.
Other smaller parties entering the contest include:
- Socialist Party of Malaysia
- Malaysian Orang Asli Party
- Parti Berjasa Malaysia
Meanwhile, youth-focused Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) and the newly formed Parti Bersama Malaysia will not contest after failing to make a significant impact in the Johor state election.
The election will see:
- 21 three-cornered fights
- One four-cornered contest
- One five-cornered contest
Why is this a state election instead of a general election?
Malaysia has two levels of government, the federal Parliament and state legislative assemblies, known as Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN).
The party that commands a majority in Parliament forms the federal government and chooses the prime minister.
At the state level, Negeri Sembilan has 36 assembly seats, and a party needs at least 19 seats to form the state government and appoint the Menteri Besar.
While state and general elections have often been held together in the past, federal and state leaders have the power to dissolve their respective legislatures at different times within the five-year term.
After Negeri Sembilan, attention is expected to move to Melaka and Sarawak before Malaysia’s next general election, which must be held by early 2028.
Key issues: cost of living, economy and political alliances
The campaign has largely focused on everyday concerns, especially the rising cost of living and economic issues.
The election also comes amid national attention on a recent royal succession dispute, which highlighted Negeri Sembilan’s unique constitutional monarchy system.
Another major factor is the first formal seat-sharing arrangement between BN and PN, with both sides dividing constituencies to avoid splitting votes against PH.
For PH, the stakes are high. Losing Negeri Sembilan would leave the coalition governing only Penang and Selangor.
PH’s 23-seat target: possible but challenging, analysts say
PH has set an ambitious target of winning 23 out of 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan election, a goal described by analysts as achievable but requiring a major shift in voter sentiment.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the target, announced by DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook, was likely aimed at motivating supporters and strengthening the coalition’s election machinery.
However, he said the BN-PN understanding could make the target difficult to achieve, especially in several marginal seats previously won by BN with very narrow majorities.
These seats include:
- Juasseh
- Kota
- Seri Menanti
- Sungai Lui
- Palong
- Senaling
- Lenggeng
- Jeram Padang
Hisommudin said the results from the 2023 state election may no longer be a reliable indicator because BN and PH were allies at the time.
Although PH could retain the 17 seats it currently holds, he said winning 23 seats would require a much bigger change in voter support.
“Winning 23 seats is not impossible, but it would require a much bigger shift in voter sentiment than what we are seeing now.”
He added that PH’s success would depend on whether it can gain more Malay support without losing its traditional non-Malay voter base.
Marginal seats could decide the outcome
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia analyst Mazlan Ali said the election result could depend heavily on marginal seats.
He suggested that PH could benefit if Bersatu attracts enough voters away from PN and BN, potentially splitting opposition support.
“The more votes Bersatu takes, the greater PH’s chances of winning.”
Before the state assembly was dissolved, PH held 17 seats, just two short of the 19-seat majority needed to form the government independently.
The final result could determine whether PH strengthens its hold on Negeri Sembilan or whether the BN-PN cooperation reshapes the state’s political direction.
Key candidates to watch in the negeri sembilan election
1. Mohamad Hasan (“Tok Mat”) – BN / UMNO
Former Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar and current Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan, popularly known as Tok Mat, is one of BN’s most influential figures.
He is also the UMNO Deputy President and is contesting to defend his long-held stronghold of Rantau.
Tok Mat faces a straight fight against Pakatan Harapan (PH) challenger Azizul Hakim, with the seat expected to draw attention due to his long political presence in the constituency
2. Anthony Loke Siew Fook – PH / DAP
DAP secretary-general and Transport Minister Anthony Loke is defending his Chennah state seat under the PH banner.
A key figure in the federal government, Loke has focused his campaign on policy issues and governance rather than personal attacks.
His contest is closely watched as Chennah is a mixed-demographic constituency and his performance could reflect PH’s support among different voter groups.
3. Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun – PH / PKR
Caretaker Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun is seeking another term as the state’s leader under the PH banner.
The PKR leader previously served as Menteri Besar and also heads Negeri Sembilan PH.
After the dissolution of the state assembly, Aminuddin moved from his previous constituency to contest Linggi, a competitive seat that has attracted significant attention.
4. Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias – BN / UMNO
Negeri Sembilan BN chairman Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias is another key figure in the election.
The Jelebu MP and UMNO leader is leading BN’s state campaign while defending the party’s traditional stronghold of Pertang.
His performance will be closely watched as BN works together with PN through a seat-sharing arrangement to challenge PH.
5. Zool Amali Hussin (“Mat Jargon”) – PN / Bersatu
Zool Amali Hussin, also known as Mat Jargon, is one of PN’s prominent grassroots figures.
Representing Bersatu under the PN banner, he is contesting Lenggeng, a Malay-majority constituency that could become an important battleground.
His campaign is part of PN’s effort to expand its influence in Negeri Sembilan and challenge the PH-led state government.
Other Seats to Watch
Beyond these major figures, several constituencies could play a decisive role, particularly marginal seats such as:
- Juasseh
- Kota
- Seri Menanti
- Sungai Lui
- Palong
- Senaling
- Lenggeng
- Jeram Padang
Many of these seats were won by BN with narrow margins in the previous state election, making them potential swing areas.
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