THE early news yesterday (Monday) could fairly be described as profound, with the two big happenings being the outcome of Hungary’s general election held on Sunday, and the spittle-flecked announcement by US president Bobo the Simpleminded of America’s response to the failed peace talks and the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. No, really.
Hungary elections
First, the good news. After 16 years in power, Hungary’s right-wing nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban — who was practically an agent for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, a favorite of the aforementioned Bobo in the US, and a model for neo-fascists everywhere — was ousted in a crushing defeat at the polls. The center-right Tisza party let by Peter Magyar (whose name literally means “Peter Hungarian”) won a supermajority in parliament, taking 138 of the 199 seats to only 55 for Orban’s Fidesz party. Crucially, the margin of victory will allow Tisza to make changes to the constitution to roll back Orban’s control over state-owned companies, elections, courts and the media, among other things, which is what Magyar told a jubilant post-election rally of 20,000 or more in Budapest he intends to do, along with ridding the government of Orban allies, including the country’s president, Tamás Sulyok.
Magyar also vowed to repair Hungary’s relations with the rest of the European Union, where Orban had served as a useful tool for Putin, mainly in blocking 90 billion euros in EU aid to Ukraine. Magyar didn’t make any specific promises about that or anything else, but his election was warmly welcomed across the rest of Europe. In reality, there are probably some conservative positions of Hungary within the EU that will remain, such as on migration and energy policy; Magyar and Tisza are, after all, an accurate reflection of the generally conservative outlook of the Hungarian people. Nevertheless, the chance to work with someone who behaves normally and values the collective institution is a breath of fresh air for Brussels.
Whatever the significance of the political sea change in Hungary is to the rest of the world, this election was still almost entirely about the domestic state of Hungary. The economy is in shambles, in part because of Orban’s antagonism toward the rest of EU, but mostly because he and his cronies spent 16 years plundering the country. One of Magyar’s key campaign promises was that he would launch a sweeping anti-corruption campaign; where that will go remains to be seen, but it does mean that he and his party have some rather high expectations to meet. Untangling the Orban web will not be easy.
I will give Viktor Orban credit for one thing: When the election returns made it clear he was headed to a landslide loss, he honorably stood up, conceded defeat, congratulated his opponent and vowed to work for the good of the country in his new role as leader of the opposition. He didn’t make desperate attempts to rig the votes, or cry about election fraud, or rally his supporters to storm the parliament building, as Bobo the Simpleminded would have done in his place, and probably fervently wished Orban would have done.
One final, amusing point is worth mentioning. Days before the election, Trump dispatched US Vice President JD Vance to Hungary to appear with Orban in one of the last campaign rallies. The outcome of that has further cemented Vance’s online reputation as the Angel of Death, because every time Vance appears, things go wrong. He visited Pope Francis, and days later, the pope died. Vance went to Pakistan to negotiate a peace deal with the Iranians, and that fell apart. He went to Hungary to boost Viktor Orban, and Orban’s party got waxed in the election. I think he should come here, and have a photo op with Sara Duterte.
The Art of... what?
Now for the bad news: In response to the collapse of the Pakistan-brokered peace negotiations with Iran, the United States president, in another one of his unhinged late-night tantrums on his Truth Social network, declared that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. That was later modified to “interdict any ships sailing to or from Iranian ports,” but it is unclear if that second suggestion actually came from him.
Take a moment to appreciate how utterly bizarre this is. Trump has been howling for Iran to lift its de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has repeatedly said it will not do until it has what it deems to be a fair peace agreement. So, Trump’s response to Iran’s continued refusal to lift its blockade of the strait is to... blockade the strait?
The man is completely off the rails, and his bizarre strategic ideas have become meme fodder in the social media. Posts have been appearing on Facebook in the past few days referencing “Don Tzu’s Art of War,” and they are hilarious.
All humor aside, the new development is going to be bad news for the rest of us. The uncertainty about what will happen in the Strait of Hormuz is going to have an undesirable effect on oil prices. The big fuel price rollbacks for this week that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. gleefully announced on Sunday night on his vlog will probably still happen, but there is a possibility they will not; and even if they do, prices are going to go right back in the other direction next week.
And, although we can certainly hope that cooler heads will prevail, if there are any, there is a real possibility that fighting will again flare up in the region. That will make an agreement to end the war even harder to achieve, and extend the energy and economic crisis being experienced by the rest of us for an even longer period.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Bluesky: @benkritz.bsky.social
Website: www.badmannersgunclub.com
