UNITED States and Iranian negotiators at the peace talks mediated by Pakistan arrived at a memorandum of understanding and submitted the same for approval by President Donald Trump. The agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days and called for unrestricted vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US’ lifting of its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Apparently, the draft memorandum did not satisfy President Trump because he announced last week a massive strike against military targets in Iran, gathering an unprecedented amount of resources for the purpose. A third aircraft carrier, the USS George W. Bush, has been summoned to the Iran theater, adding to the USS Abraham Lincoln and the world’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford. Each of these vessels is a huge military base. Presumably the forces at the numerous military bases the US has in the Persian Gulf would come into play, now that the countries hosting them have entered the war on the side of the US.
President Trump would not settle for any agreement that does not include his red lines, especially Iran’s giving up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the ending of Iran’s nuclear program, even given the assurance that these items would be covered by future subsequent talks. There’s no want of reasons justifying Trump’s impatience to settle the matter quickly and the decision to apply maximum pressure on Iran to take the direction that is to Trump’s liking.
The lessons of recent history about leaders giving up their nuclear option are not lost on Iranian leaders, Iranians counting among the most intelligent people on the planet. Moammar Gadhafi became an easy target after he abandoned his nuclear program. Ukraine would regret giving up its nuclear stockpile after Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to release it from Russia’s orbit and saw it as too weak to resist invasion.
If the US does not destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran, the latter is bent on destroying the US. If Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, against whom would it be directed at? The Islamic Republic has called the US the devil itself. With Iran’s nuclear weapons landing in the hands of terrorists that many countries consider the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be, would the world be able to sleep soundly?
The Americans must have realized by now that Iranians are using ceasefires and peace talks to play for time to regroup and shore up their advantages against their adversaries. Iran has built an alternative country underground in bunkers and tunnels. This explains why even if possessing the smartest intelligence people, the US and Israel seem to be always underestimating Iran’s capabilities. Safe from the gaze of satellites, they work like ants building their stockpiles of missiles, drones and bombs. After the US announced it had destroyed 90 percent of Iran’s stockpile of missiles, US allies in the Middle East find themselves the subject of what then appeared as surprise attacks from weapons that were supposedly destroyed.
The US massive attack was to have already taken place at this writing. But, according to Trump, Iran’s neighbors asked for a postponement of about two to three days. They must have asked for time to brace themselves for any possible attack from Iran.
Iran has made a declaration that it would no longer attack its neighbors except to retaliate against attacks from the latter. Iran’s neighbors should not trust Iran on this because they once refused to be dragged into the US-Israel vs Iran war, but still they were attacked by Iran. To Iran, these neighbors have committed an unpardonable sin. They invited the US into the region.
Because of Saudi Arabia joining the war on the side of the US or against Iran, there have been speculations doubting Pakistan would continue playing mediator between US-Israel vs Iran. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are reputed to have special relations. Saudi Arabia has always been the leading benefactor helping Pakistan out of any economic crisis it finds itself in. There’s a mutual defense treaty between the two countries. Each considers an attack on the other an attack against itself. There’s in fact already a report that Pakistan has sent 70,000 of its troops to Saudi Arabia.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Pakistan, unable to be neutral when it comes to Saudi Arabia, pulls out of its mediator role in the conflict. But even without Saudi Arabia entering the war, Pakistan’s neutrality has been questioned in the US Congress after complaints that Pakistan has been favoring Iran. Pakistan calls itself like Iran an Islamic Republic when many of the protesters against the regime are calling for a change to a secular dispensation.
Iran can only blame itself if it finds few allies in the Middle East and the world.
Let the Fates do their work.
