A scary, perfect storm is approaching

First of two parts

A PERFECT storm is approaching. And it is scary.

The perfect storm I am referring to is the convergence of the extreme El Niño that will hit us next month, the shortage and high prices of fuel and fertilizers, a high-interest environment that will also hurt food producers, and the lingering effects of the still unresolved flood control scandal.

The results are already showing: The Philippines experiencing lower economic growth and entering a high-inflation scenario.

My greatest worry now is toward the extreme El Niño that scientists are saying will be strongest in 140 or so years. Some scientists have also gone to the point of labeling the upcoming El Niño as “Godzilla.” And that may not be an exaggeration.

As usual, Southeast Asia — still dependent on energy imports — will be among the regions that will be badly — or very badly — affected by this Godzilla El Niño.

Weeks ago, scientists were saying an extreme El Niño was a possibility. But now, the consensus is it is a certainty. The scariest thing is extreme El Niño episodes are usually followed by few but stronger storms. Which brings me to a sensitive question — what has the government done to make sure the massive floodings that exposed corruption in flood control projects would not happen again? None or very little? More on that later.

I am also alarmed looking at the effects of the 2023-2024 El Niño that was not extreme on rice prices and importation, as these can be used to hypothesize the effects of the extreme El Niño.

The 2023-2024 El Niño drove rice inflation to as high as 24.4 percent in March 2024. Rice inflation was actually double digits from September 2023 to August 2024, or almost one year.

And in 2024, or the peak of the non-extreme El Niño, the Philippines imported a record 4.68 million metric tons (MT) of rice. Importing rice is a good solution, but there are forecasts that India — the world’s top rice exporter — will be hard hit by droughts that can drive down its grains production this year and 2027.

Vietnam has been a trusted source of rice imports, but they are still dependent on imported energy to produce fertilizers and is not exempted from getting hit by the upcoming extreme El Niño. Vietnam produces a big portion of its fertilizer needs but needs liquefied natural gas (LNG) for production of the input. But LNG has become scarce and more expensive due to the Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, Thailand imports about 70 percent of its fertilizer needs and is also not exempt from the effects of El Niño events.

Compounding the situation is the high cost of fuel, which adds to the cost of transporting food from producer to consumer. While the recent roll back in diesel prices have been substantial, the average price still hovers around P90 per liter, which is still higher than the P60 per liter price before the Middle East conflict started.

And who bears the higher cost of fuel to transport food? The consumer.

Addressing the challenges

So, how do we go forward given the formidable challenges the “perfect storm” will literally throw at us?

The reactivation of the Department of Agriculture (DA) of its El Niño task force is an excellent first step, as it aims to improve inter-agency cooperation in addressing the challenges from dry spells and droughts.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the agency will be guided by lessons learned from the 2023-2024 El Niño, with the aim of reducing post-harvest losses, shifting to production of crops that are not water-dependent such as munggo (mung beans) in areas where water will be scarce, utilizing solar energy for irrigation, adopting low-cost greenhouses, and pushing earlier planting schedules.

This early, the DA said that an extreme El Niño can cause 20 percent to 30 percent decline in production based on recent studies.

The DA is also delivering high-quality and climate-resilient seeds to farmers under the National Rice Program (NRP) and the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF), which is an excellent measure. Also being extended to farmers are fertilizer assistance, farm mechanization, irrigation support, credit assistance, and intensified extension and farmer training services.

I would also urge this administration to declare a National State of Food Emergency to fully support measures the DA is putting in place to address the challenges of the extreme El Niño, and to involve actively local government units, civil society, and the private sector.

The engineering units of the Armed Forces of the Philippines can also be mobilized to help clean up irrigation canals, plant crops in state-owned lands that have adequate water supply, among others.

Fuel subsidy should also be extended directly to farmers and cooperatives that are extensively utilizing farm machines to cultivate rice, and assist them in leasing their equipment to other farmers and cooperatives that still do not have machines.

Tiu Laurel also mentioned the need to increase the utilization of biofertilizers that I believe is a long-term measure to lessen the dependence of our food production system on imported inputs. This was already started in the last administration with the Balance Fertilization Program, where there were findings that utilization of biofertilizers and farm wastes can improve soil health and water retention capacity of soils.

I am sure that state universities and colleges, agencies under the DA and the Department of Science and Technology, and Filipino scientists and agripreneurs, among others, have their own organic-based solutions that can increase crop production. We just need to bring them out in the open so they can be tested extensively, and scaled up if they really work.

However, I warn that a “one size fits all” approach to addressing the challenges of the “perfect storm” be implemented, as the rice-producing regions in the Philippines have their own set of unique challenges.

And the challenge should be beyond the extreme El Niño proper, which is expected to be up to the third quarter of 2027.

This, as the perfect storm that is approaching will literally bring with it powerful storms that can wreak havoc on the country’s agriculture sector. And when those powerful storms hit, do not expect people not to be enraged if the so-called flood control projects that caused us billions of pesos fail very badly. Again.