Analysts predict that the upcoming state polls will be closely watched as the battlelines between the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional coalition and Perikatan Nasional become clearer.
According to political scientist Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, the state polls in Selangor and Penang will be of particular interest since it is the first time Pakatan and Barisan are working together against a strong opposition coalition. Selangor, known as a stronghold for Pakatan, will be eager to maintain its super majority status under the new coalition with Barisan.
On the other hand, Perikatan aims to test its strength in the battle for the 34 Malay majority seats, hoping to make inroads. The outcome of key contests, such as the one between former Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azmin and PKR's Juwairiya Zulkifli in Hulu Klang, and the battle between Nurul Syazwani Noh, daughter of former Umno Selangor chief Tan Sri Nor Omar, and PKR's Mohd Yahya Mat in Permatang, will indicate if there has been a swing from Pakatan to Perikatan.
It will also reveal whether voters are satisfied with the ruling coalition's performance or if their choices were influenced by sentiments. In Penang, the surprise nomination of Gerakan president Datuk Dominic Lau for the Malay majority Bayan Lepas seat may be an attempt by Perikatan to counter the perception that it is a Malay-centric coalition.
Lau will compete against Amanah's incumbent Azrul Mahathir Aziz in a seat traditionally contested by PAS. According to Universiti Malaya’s political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, Perikatan's decision to field Lau in Bayan Baru could backfire in Penang, a challenging territory for Perikatan to gain control.
The participation of non-Malays in contesting Malay majority seats may not resonate well with the voters, and Gerakan might have to rely on PAS for Malay support. The battle in Gombak Setia will also be significant as it will determine the political relevance of Hilman Idham, who won the seat under PKR in 2018 but defected to Bersatu in 2020. Defending his seat under Perikatan, the election's outcome will indicate whether Hilman is still a viable choice for voters.
Another figure to watch is Bersatu Srikandi chief Datuk Seri Rina Harun, who aims to prove her relevance in the state polls after losing her Sepang parliamentary seat in the general election. Rina will participate in the contest for a state seat in Shah Alam, and her ability to convince the voters there will be closely observed. Election expert Dr G Manimaran believes that Azmin, by standing in Hulu Klang, is playing it safe and attempting a political comeback.
Many assumed he would leave the political scene after losing his Gombak parliamentary seat. Perikatan sees him as their 'poster boy' in Selangor and expects a fiercely contested election between Azmin and Juwairiya.
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