It was never likely that the Islamic Republic of Iran would gift Donald Trump a peace agreement, even a measly one, for his 80th birthday, something he could immediately proclaim after the “historic” cage fight on the south lawn of the White House. However, having falsely declared 39 times since he went to war with Iran in February that peace was at hand, this time might really be different.
If the Pakistani authorities brokering the deal, the Iranians and the Americans all say that the “memorandum of understanding” (MoU) will indeed be signed by the end of the week, then there is, at last, some cause for realistic optimism.
However, caution remains – because the indications are that the as-yet unpublished and (curiously) unleaked MoU will settle comparatively little. It will, in essence, be an undertaking to talk about some future, more durable agreement. If recent history is anything to go by, the obstacles to that will remain formidable. MoU or not, an unstable region has been rendered even more dangerous by the unforced war of choice launched by Israel and America. The world will be coping with its repercussions for months, if not years.
Not the least of those is the economic impact. It is vast, extending far beyond the physical destruction and the price of petrol to a global loss of output and lower economic growth that threatened an international recession and financial crash. National treasuries, companies and households everywhere have come under pressure, and the poorest have suffered most.
That squeeze should now recede, as oil, natural gas, raw materials, pharmaceuticals and other supplies resume their traffic. The Strait of Hormuz should soon reopen to shipping, with or without some form of Iranian supervision or tolling – and that alone is worth celebrating, as witnessed in the reaction of financial markets, and even if it will take some time for commerce to return to normal.
The most serious obstacle to a more lasting peace remains Benjamin Netanyahu. In his zero-sum world view, a weaker Iran is necessarily a safer Israel, and that is why he encouraged – or persuaded – the Trump administration to launch Operation Epic Fury, just as he did in getting Operation Midnight Hammer underway a year ago.
To the now obvious irritation of the US president, Mr Netanyahu is continuing his invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon, designed to neutralise Hezbollah, as well as apparently permitting more illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank, even as Mr Trump wants out.
The president seems not to be able to stop his troublesome friend and ally from going on and on with his military operations, but he shouldn’t be surprised. Mr Netanyahu sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat to (nuclear-armed) Israel, and, as such, it will require maximum pressure from the White House to prevent him from continually trying to scupper the MoU and a permanent ceasefire.
A second, related roadblock to peace lies in the US Senate, which has still to approve the Iran MoU, under a law passed, ironically, when Republicans were concerned about the Iran nuclear deal negotiated in 2015 by the Barack Obama administration.
Led by the influential and implacably pro-Israel, indeed pro-Netanyahu senator Lindsey Graham, it will soon be Mr Trump’s turn to persuade hardline Republicans that his deal is indeed superior to Mr Obama’s, even if it will certainly not be as comprehensive and may well contain a commitment to unfreeze Iranian financial assets, a move some hawks will view as unbearable humiliation for the United States.
The lack of a viable alternative plan and the electoral effects of a resumption of the war should, though, be enough to get the MoU passed.
What Mr Graham and his colleagues should be most concerned about is that this ill-starred foray into the Middle East has ended up leaving the Iranian regime stronger than it was before the war, and more threatening than it was under Mr Obama’s nuclear deal, which Mr Trump tore up in one of his fits of childish pique.
The problem now is that Mr Trump has endowed Iran with a far more useful option than any nuclear device: the effective weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a weapon of mass economic destruction of unique power. It was given satisfactory proof of use during the conflict, when not even US armed forces and a naval counter-blockade could prevent an enfeebled Tehran from taking the world economy hostage.
Whatever piece of paper the Americans and Iranians eventually sign, the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards will always have that potential for blackmail easily at their command. And that is why America has lost this war.
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