Donald Trump has again claimed that an end to his war with Iran is within reach. But, not for the first time, the notion has been rapidly debunked.
Indeed, the rapid advance of Houthi rebel forces, so that they can tighten their grip on oil supplies moving through the Red Sea, is evidence that the conflict is spreading and intensifying. The group, closely linked to Tehran, has swept through southern Yemen. This is drawing Saudi Arabia into renewing its long and merciless battle with the Houthis that ended, uneasily, in stalemate a few years ago.
The possibility of all-out direct war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, turning the regional Shia-Sunni schism into one of geopolitical consequence, is one of the many “nightmare scenarios” that are now perilously close to coming to pass. Others include clashes between European powers and Russia, simmering Sino-American tensions and the rivalry between Israel and Iran, which has already erupted. AI and climate change only add an additional terrifying backdrop to the bleak picture.
The upshot is the price of a barrel of oil is back up above the $100 mark, a gallon of diesel in the US has hit an all-time high of $6 a gallon, the world economy teeters on the brink of recession, and the president himself is staring defeat in the mid-term elections in the face.
According to Mr Trump, though, things could hardly be going more to his non-existent plan. His latest social media post on the immediate prospects declares in his usual bombastic style: “The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly. I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage – The concept of which we are open to. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
A deal would of course be very welcome for a world economy on the edge of recession. Yet, within a matter of hours, Tehran dismissed his claims. So, far from the government of the Islamic Republic being cowed and disabled by President Trump’s “victory” in a war so obviously not yet over, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, was actually impertinent enough to counter: “The stakes around oil and the straits have changed. Damage control won’t stop what’s coming. No talks until Iran’s conditions are met. Period!”
Mr Rezaei is unfortunately more right than Mr Trump in his assessment of the situation. Talks to open up the Strait of Hormuz have stalled ever since the US-Iran “Memorandum of Understanding” collapsed in July, after less than a month in operation. There have no doubt been many conversations via semi-secret back-channels facilitated by the likes of Oman, but there are as yet no visible signs of progress. Contrary to equally exaggerated claims by Mr Trump, traffic through the Strait is not back to normal.
In short, things are getting worse for America, and rather better for Iran and its increasingly active allies in the Houthi rebel movement. The principal routes for the supply of much of the world’s oil, natural gas, and related commodities such as fertilisers and pharmaceutical precursors are more or less firmly under the control of Iran and its proxies – the Strait of Hormuz, the East-West pipeline used by Saudi Arabia as an alternative route to the Red Sea, is being bombed at will, and the shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait is being disrupted.
This is the western counterpart to the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, and it is the gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This is now being menaced ever more by the Houthis, who’ve made startling advances against their enemies – Yemen and Saudi Arabia, which are occasionally humiliated by these guerrillas. For the first time in this phase of their long-running battles, the Saudi civil defence has had to issue an alert of potential danger to Mecca, home to Islam’s holiest site and a place of huge symbolic significance.
That the world’s greatest superpower still finds itself bullied and banjaxed by a badly mauled Iran and a few Houthi fighters armed with pick-up trucks and drones may dismay observers, but it is really no great surprise. It also has many precedents.
The Americans are being systematically beaten in an “asymmetrical” never-ending war they cannot win. The same was true in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam. It was during that earlier disaster that the then president Richard Nixon bemoaned such a plight in these terms: “If, when the chips are down, the world’s most powerful nation, the United States of America, acts like a pitiful, helpless giant, the forces of totalitarianism and anarchy will threaten free nations and free institutions throughout the world.”
He eventually found, just as Mr Trump is doing now, that the only escape from such a trap is to accept reality, declare “peace with honour”, move on with as much dignity as possible, and try to learn the lessons.
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