THE Philippines and other countries in the region are unlikely to face significant risks from new US tariffs as businesses have already adjusted to prolonged trade uncertainty, the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.
"[W]e don't expect a major change in the way we think about the uncertainties of the US tariffs on the region," AMRO Chief Economist Dong He said during a press briefing on Monday.
“The private sectors have adjusted or reconfigured their supply chains. So I think the region has dealt with tariff-related uncertainties quite well,” he added.
The AMRO economist said uncertainties from weather-related disruptions were more critical compared to US tariffs given their potential impact on food prices.
He noted that the timing and severity of El Niño remained difficult to predict, with some experts saying that its effects would become more apparent in 2027 rather than this year.
"I would say there is an important upside risk to food price inflation in the region. And we should be very well aware of that," he said, noting that food accounts for a significant share of consumer price baskets across Asean economies.
The Philippines also continues to face challenges from higher energy costs but remains supported by service-based and semiconductor exports that are tied to the global artificial intelligence (AI) cycle.
“[T]hat would continue to provide support to the export growth in the Philippines,” he said.
AMRO kept its 2026 Philippine growth forecast at 4.1 percent, within the government’s downwardly revised 3.5- to 4.5-percent target but a slowdown from the 2025 result of 4.4 percent. The projection for next year was also unchanged at 5.5 percent.
He said subdued private investment remained a key factor behind AMRO's expectation of slower economic growth.
“I think for the longer term ... this is an area that the Philippines should really focus on: how to strengthen private investment so that the production capacity and the infrastructure will be strong enough to support higher medium-term growth,” he said.
“[S]ome of the governance issues relating to infrastructure investment will [also] have to be resolved.”
The country is also among those more heavily affected by the oil price shock, which pushed inflation higher and weighed on first-quarter economic growth.
He noted that the swift tightening by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) had helped contain broader inflationary pressures, and easing oil prices also prompted AMRO to slightly lower its 2026 inflation forecast for the Philippines to 5.7 percent from 6.0 percent.
The inflation forecast for next year was kept at 4.1 percent. Both projections are above the BSP’s 2.0- to 4.0-percent target.
