THE battle lines have been drawn and Saturday (Nov.19) is the D-Day.
IN Sabah, 119 candidates including 20 independents, are vying for the 25 parliamentary seats.
The major players include the ruling GRS-BN coalition. GRS is contesting 13 seats and Barisan Nasional 12.
GRS consists of KL-based Bersatu and local parties PBS, Star, SAPP and Usno. Bersatu gets 6 seats, PBS 4, Star 2 and SAPP 1. However, for the purpose of this election, all these parties are contesting under the GRS symbol and there is no mention of Bersatu. From left: Isnaraissah, Rahman, Tangau and Joniston.
BN comprises Umno, PBRS, MIC and MCA. However, MIC and MCA are not contesting. Umno gets 11 seats and PBRS one.
The other major players are Pakatan Harapan (PH) comprising PKR, DAP, Amanah, and Upko, as well as former Sabah ruling party Warisan. However, only the standalone local party Warisan is fielding 25 candidates. PH+ is contesting 23 seats.
The infant KL-based Pejuang led by former PM Dr Mahathir, surprisingly, managed to put up 15 candidates. Followed by Datuk Peter Anthony’s KDM party which has 7 candidates. From left: Azis, Yakob, Chan and Amanda.
Muda, PPRS, PBRS led by former Federal Minister Tan Sri Joseph Kurup, and Perikatan Nasional (PN) of former PM Tan Sri Muhyiddin are fielding one candidate each. I will explain more on PBRS and PN’s involvement when I come to the constituencies in which they are contesting. Muda has aligned itself with PH although not officially a component. Husaini and Shahelmy
So here goes my constituency by constituency evaluation. In doing so, I realize that however I write it there will be accusations that I am biased. So be it. You can’t please everybody. I am not here to please anybody but simply try my best to dissect it based on my journalistic experience.
P167 KUDAT
THIS is a 5-cornered fight between GRS, Warisan, PH, Pejuang and an Independent.
The GRS candidate is Datuk Seri Dr Ruddy Awah, Warisan’s is Rashid Abd Harun, PH’s Thonny Chee, Pejuang’s Petronella Usun and Independent Datuk Verdon Bahanda.
On paper, Dr Ruddy has the edge as he is an Assistant Minister and has been on the move throughout the parliamentary constituency since last year. He won the Pitas State seat as an Independent in 2020 which should prove his popularity.
Dr Ruddy is perhaps best known for organizing a Chinese New Year celebration in the compound of his house in Pitas every year before Covid. Mind you, this is despite the fact that Pitas is a native-majority area where the number of Chinese can perhaps be counted by hand. The 2-week celebration once entered the Malaysian Book of Records.
With due respect, I never heard of Rashid, Thonny and Petronella. Verdon is a successful businessman and is brother of Datuk Wetrom Bahanda who is KDM’s candidate in neighbouring Kota Marudu. Verdon was once involved in the Sabah Football Club or something like that.
Up till recently, he too had been actively going round in Kudat and was once rumoured to be the Umno candidate there. When that did not materialize, he decided to stand as an Independent.
The incumbent Kudat MP is Datuk Abdul Rahim Bakri who won it on a BN ticket in 2018 with a 1,359 vote majority. He was Kudat MP for a few terms and is a former Deputy Minister. He left BN in Dec 2018 and joined Bersatu early 2019.
P168 KOTA MARUDU
THIS is a 6-cornered fight between Pejuang (Azmi Julkiflee), MUDA (Shahrizal Denci), Warisan (Datuk Jilid Kuminding), GRS (Datuk Dr Maximus Ongkili), KDM (Datuk Wetrom Bahanda) and an Independent (Norman Tulang).
On paper, the fight appears to be between Dr Max and Wetrom, with due respect to the rest. Max needs no introduction. He has been the MP since 1995 and took over the PBS presidency from Huguan Siou Tan Sri Jospeh Pairin Kitingan about a year or two ago. He has also been a Federal Minister on two occasions since Najib’s time. He was once also Assemblyman for Langkon, part of KM.
Wetrom was elected Assemblyman for Bandau, a new seat, in 2020 on a Bersatu ticket. He was then made an Assistant Minister to the Chief Minister. Just like his brother Verdon, he is a successful businessman and pride of the Rungus community centering around Matunggong, part of KM.
Soon after the dissolution of Parliament recently, he announced that he was quitting Bersatu and joining Warisan, just to change his mind 48 hours later and joined KDM, instead.
There were all sorts of rumours regarding his sudden move which included his not seeing eye-to-eye with Dr Max and Matunggong Assemblywoman Datuk Julita the PBS secretary-general.
Wetrom comes from an influential family centering around the Matunngon and Bandau area. If I am not mistaken, former PKR Assemblyman Jelani Hamdan is his close relative and his sister Datuk Redona is a Political Secretary to the Chief Minister.
But whether all these will translate into votes or how much influence he actually has among the voters in the larger Parliamentary seat remains to be seen. KM comprises the 3 State seats of Matunggong, Tandek and Bandau. Both Matunggong and Tandek are controlled by PBS via their Assemblymen.
The Warisan candidate, Jilid, cannot be underestimated also. He was a career diplomat until his retirement recently and had represented Malaysia in a few countries. But he lacks the kind of ground support that Dr Max and Wetrom have, being new to politics. Still, standing on the ticket of a former ruling party, I don’t expect him to lose his deposit.
Dr Max last won KM in 2018 on a PBS ticket with a majority of 1,774. He is still with PBS, except that contesting using the GRS symbol. For decades, PBS has been using its handshake symbol which voters are familiar with. Whether they are comfortable with this new symbol remains to be seen.
P169 KOTA BELUD
THE ‘Cowboy Town’ of Kota Belud sees a 3-cornered fight between incumbent Isnaraissah Munirah Majilis of Warisan, former KB MP Datuk Abd Rahman Dahlan of BN and Madeli @ Modily Bangali of PH.
In 2018, then newcomer Munirah beat another former KB MP and former CM, Datuk Salleh Said Keruak of BN. Both Rahman and Salleh were Federal Ministers under Najib prior to GE14.
In 2008, Rahman took over from Salleh as KB MP and won again in 2013. However, in 2018 Rahman moved to Sepanggar and gave KB back to Salleh. Both lost, along with BN at the National level.
For being a “Giant Killer”, Munirah was made a Deputy Minister after the 2018 election. It was however shortlived as the Warisan-plus government collapsed in 2020.
In 2018, despite being a political novice, Munirah beat the experienced Salleh by 4,262 votes. She is an Electrical Engineering graduate from UMS.
This time around, the fight is between Rahman and Munirah. Whether Rahman succeeds in reclaiming KB which he held for two terms when Musa was CM remains to be seen. Rahman is an Umno supreme council member. He is well-educated and was given a senior Cabinet portfolio and made BN Strategic Communications Director by Najib. If he wins, he is DPM material representing Sabah.
MUSA has openly rooted for him, saying that he is the best man for the job (DPM post for Sabah).
P170 TUARAN
TUARAN, hometown of the Chief Minister, sees a 6-cornered fight between incumbent Datuk Wilfred Madius Tangau of PH (Upko) and 5 others.
Tangau who was then Upko president won Tuaran on a BN ticket in 2018. The State election was held simultaneously although Tangau didn’t contest. Within 24 hours after the 2018 election, he directed his few Upko Assemblymen to support Warisan’s Shafie Apdal enabling Shafie to be the Chief Minister although Musa had already been sworn-in.
As a reward, Tangau was made DCM via appointment as a Nominated Assemblyman since he didn’t contest in the State election.
As a “punishment”, the Kiulu voters retained incumbent assemblyman Joniston Bangkuai of PBS in the 2020 State election. Tangau is also from Kiulu and that was his debut in a State election. Thus, Joniston who was only an ordinary Assemblyman became a Giant Killer.
This election would be the second clash between the two Kiulu leaders. The first was 2020 when Joniston scored 4,007 votes and Tangau only 2,786 votes. None of the other four candidates then got more than 400 votes each and lost their deposits.
In the 2018 parliamentary election for Tuaran, Tangau got about 20,000 votes to beat his nearest rival by 7,624 votes. The nearest rival was lady engineer Chrisnadia Sinam of PKR who got more than 13,000 votes despite being a newcomer.
Everybody knows that in order to win Tuaran, you need the majority of the Bajau/Muslim votes from Sulaman apart from the KDM votes from Tamparuli and Kiulu. Standing on an Umno-led BN ticket, Tangau then had no problem with getting most of the Bajau/Muslim votes.
Tangau knows this too. He also knows that most of Chrisnadia’s 13,000 votes came from the Kadazandusuns of Tamparuli and Kiulu. I stand to be corrected, but I was told that in 2018 Tangau actually “lost” in Tamparuli and Kiulu. And yet he is defending his seat.
His calculation must be that if he can get back only half of the 20,000 votes of 2018 and the majority of PKR’s 13,000 votes, he can win. This is because Upko which he heads is now a component of Anwar Ibrahim’s PH with PKR as the main partner and that there is no PKR candidate this time.
But politics doesn’t work that way. This is because in 2018 the Opposition votes were solid with Warisan backing PKR. This time round, Warisan and PH/PKR are going their own way.
In fact, among Tangau’s opponents is Warisan’s Jo-Anna Sue Rampas, the former beauty queen whose father is European. Jo-Anna made her election debut in 2018 and got 2,893 votes meaning she didn’t lose her deposit. Her main opponent then was PBS’ Joniston Bangkuai who obtained 4,336 votes and won.
Interestingly, Tangau, Bangkuai and Rampas are all from Kiulu which together with Sulaman, Pantai Dalit and Tamparuli make up Tuaran. Bangkuai and Rampas also attend the same church, SDA while Tangau is a Catholic. There are a sizeable number of SDA church members in Kiulu but Catholics also number a lot. Jo-Anna is a niece of former Kiulu Assemblyman Datuk Louis Rampas. Louis was a 3-term PBS Assemblyman until he was replaced by Joniston in 2013. To the best of my memory, Louis never left PBS until today.
Don’t underestimate Jo-Anna because she has the support of Warisan Sulaman and Pantai Dalit apart from Tamparuli and Kiulu. The Warisan candidates in Sulaman and Pantai Dalit in the last election didn’t lose their deposits although they lost the election.
To cut the long story short, on paper Joniston should have no problem to win come Nov 19, only the margin is unpredictable. This is because in the 2020 State election, GRS-BN won in all four – Kiulu, Tamparuli, Sulaman and Pantai Dalit.
The second reason is the Opposition vote is split between PH/Upko and Warisan while PBS’ vote is solid through GRS-BN. Joniston has the support of not only PBS but also Bersatu, Star, BN/Umno, SAPP and Usno. On paper at least, Joniston should win comfortably.
Warisan can say that they are the only true local party whereas both GRS through Bersatu and BN through Umno have KL ties. Voters decide. Didn’t Warisan once work with KL and it was because of PH that they had 3 Federal Ministers, an observer pointed out.
Will Joniston be a Giant Killer for a second time? Or will Jo-Ann be able to spring a surprise? An election is like a football game, until the final whistle is blown, we don’t know who wins. So may the best person win.
P171 SEPANGGAR
THIS is a 5-cornered fight between incumbent Datuk Mohd Azis Jamman (Warisan), Datuk Yakub Khan (BN-Umno), Yusof Kuncang (Pejuang), Mustapha Sakmud (PH-PKR) and Jumardie Lukman (KDM).
Azis, then a newcomer, won in 2018 with a 12,984 majority. That was quite a big majority considering that it was his election debut. The icing on the cake was he, despite being a relatively unknown at that time, defeated a Federal Minister and senior Umno leader, Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan.
Prior to 2018, Rahman was MP for Kota Belud for 10 years. He switched to Sepanggar, leaving Kota Belud to his predecessor Datuk Salleh who was also defeated. Rahman has ‘returned’ to Kota Belud for this election.
Azis, the former Warisan Youth Chief, was made a Deputy Minister after the 2018 election when Warisan threw its support behind Dr Mahathir’s PH government. He lost his federal job in 2020 together with the other Warisan federal ministers and deputies. Whether he is able to defend Sepanggar this time round remains to be seen.
Azis’ main opponent is expected to be BN’s Yakub Khan who is one of the three Umno State Ministers chosen to run for Parliament. What is the rationale for fielding a State Minister? That you have to ask Sabah Umno chief and DCM Bung Moktar who himself is defending his Kinabatangan seat.
On paper, as Yakub has been a Minister and local Assemblyman of the ruling party for the last two years, he should have an edge. Besides, having been out in the cold being an Opposition MP since March 2020, Azis is being disadvantaged in terms of clout. During his hey days, he was a powerful Deputy Home Minister whose Ministry is in charge of the Police among other things.
Should Yakub win and BN is returned to power, he is tipped to be a Federal Minister. Bung Moktar is said to be not keen to go to KL and prefers to stay in Sabah as DCM.
Among the other candidates is Mustapha Sakmud of PH/PKR. If I am not mistaken, he is a lawyer and trusted lieutenant of Datuk Christina Liew who is Sabah PH chief and former State PKR head. So can Yakub win? If we look at the 2020 State results, BN/Umno got a total of 10,423 votes in Karambunai and Darau, the two Muslim-majority State constituencies within Sepanggar. But Warisan got 10,969 votes. Plus PBS’ 2,948 votes, this gives BN 13,371 votes.
There was no Warisan candidate in the 3rd State seat of Inanam in 2020 as it was still having a relationship with PH/PKR. The PKR candidate, Peto Galim won by getting 8,586 votes and a majority of 5,638. BN ally, PBS, got 2,948 votes, the 2nd highest. Inanam is KDM-majority with sizeable Chinese votes.
But Warisan and PKR have split. While PKR’s votes in Inanam are expected to go to Mustapha, it would be interesting to see how the Muslim votes in Karambunai and Darau would go this time.
But all these figures are only on paper and voters may not necessarily follow the same pattern this time round.
Someone pointed out that of the 5 Sepanggar candidates, only Yakub is a local from the constituency and this should work to his advantage. The big bike-riding Yakub has also led Umno Sepanggar for a number of years and seems to be popular with the youths especially.
P172 KOTA KINABALU
THIS is a 5-cornered fight between incumbent Chan Foong Hin (Harapan-DAP), Yee Tsai Yiew (GRS-PBS), Amanda Yeo (Warisan), Winston Liaw (KDM) and Marcel Jude (Independent).
The incumbent is Chan of DAP except that this time they are using the PH symbol (Pakatan) for the first time. Chan won it in 2018, taking over from colleague Jimmy Wong who moved to Sri Tanjung state seat in Tawau. Chan was the Tawau MP before that.
Kota Kinabalu, being the State Capital, just like national capital KL, has always been a stronghold of the Opposition. Since 2018, all the 3 State seats under including KK as an MP seat have been under the Opposition, either DAP or PKR (at time of winning).
In 2018, Chan won a huge majority of 24,086 votes. That was quite a majority and it would take herculean effort to unseat him, assuming that DAP is still popular with the Chinese voters.
In 2018, Chan defeated Dr Joseph Lee of BN/PBS and Datuk Yong Teck Lee of SAPP. Chan obtained 31,632 votes, Lee 7,546 votes and Yong 3,132 votes. Lee, a medical doctor, was the DAP candidate for Putatan before he joined PBS while Yong needs no introduction.
Chan’s main opponent is expected to be GRS/PBS’ Yee Tsai Yiew. Yiew Yee (her name as in FB) is daughter of former KK MP and Api-Api Assemblyman, Datuk Seri Panglima Dr Yee Moh Chai. Just like her father, she is a lawyer.
Dr Yee was also a former State Minister and later DCM after PBS’ return to BN in 2002.
The last time Dr Yee won in KK as an MP was in 2004 (GE11), standing on a BN/PBS ticket. He polled 16,047 votes to beat his nearest rival by 10,860 votes. Hiew King Chew of DAP polled only 5,187 votes.
In 2008, Hiew won with a majority of only 106 votes and KK has been with DAP since.
Reversal of fortunes? He defeated Christina Liew of PKR and Chin Tek Ming of BN/PBS.
Will Yiew Yee be able to follow her father’s footsteps? It remains to be seen and we will know on the night of Nov 19. In the meantime, Yiew Yee has no shortage of advice and guidance from a veteran, her own father.
In politics, nothing is impossible. I suppose it was also for this reason that KJ dared to take on PH in its stronghold Sg Buloh where its majority was also huge in 2018.
P173 PUTATAN
THIS is a 4-cornered fight between incumbent Awang Husaini (PH-PKR), Shahelmy Yahya (BN-Umno), Patrick Payne (Pejuang) and Ahmad Mohd Said (Warisan).
Awang won the seat in 2018 with a 2,339 vote majority in a 5-cornered fight. He was one of the only two successful PKR MP candidates that year, the other being Datuk Christina Liew who won in Tawau. He obtained 14,106 votes. His nearest rival, Datuk Dr Marcus Mojigoh of BN-Upko got 11,767 votes.
His major rival this time round is expected to be Datuk Shahelmy who is a State Assemblyman in one of the State Constituencies.
Shahelmy is also one of three Umno Ministers who are seeking election as MP. Why? Again you have to ask Bung.
Will Shahelmy be able to unseat Awang this time?
The answer is very possible.
This is because if in 2018 Awang got solid support from not just PKR but also Warisan and DAP, this time round the vote is split as Warisan is putting up its own candidate.
But it is hard to say because Awang still has the support of other Pakatan partners including new member Upko plus DAP and Amanah.
It must be remembered that the 11,000+ votes obtained by Mojigoh were mostly Upko or Kadazandusun votes.
Anyway, man proposes God disposes. We will know the answer on Nov 19.
On paper, Shahelmy seems to have the advantage though, being a Minister and sitting Assemblyman.
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