I truly believe, as I have mentioned previously, that the best way for Anwar to win GE16 is by losing the Johor election to PN.
As a matter of fact, I believe that because the government is keen on studying the effects of losing Johor, that it chose to hold the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections a couple of weeks apart.
MUDA and Nga Kor Ming criticised the Election Commission's decision to hold the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections separately, calling it wasteful and unnecessary. However, I believe the government deliberately wanted the elections to be held separately so it could study how the outcome in Johor influences voter behaviour in Negeri Sembilan before deciding when to call the next general election.
Sometimes, to win a war, you have to lose a battle.
This may be what Anwar and Zahid Hamidi are thinking as they head into battle in Johor.
From my perspective, the best result that Anwar and Zahid can hope for in Johor is a decisive victory for PAS-PN and a significant defeat for both BN and PH.
It is because they are seeking a defeat for their own side that both Zahid and Anwar have allowed the feud between PH and BN to escalate without doing much to quell it.
The strategy here is that if PH and BN continue fighting among themselves in Johor, both parties will lose a significant number of seats to PN.
Only if PH and BN suffer a major setback in Johor while PAS-PN achieves a significant victory, will the factions within PH and BN that wish to abandon the unity government and contest independently be sidelined in favour of those who want to preserve the unity government.
More importantly, only a significant PAS-PN victory in Johor, coupled with a heavy defeat for BN and PH, can persuade non-Malay voters who are increasingly losing faith in Anwar's administration to rally behind his leadership once again, if for no other reason than to prevent the advance of PAS-PN.
It is to execute this strategy of engineering a short-term defeat in order to secure a larger long-term victory that both BN president Zahid Hamidi and PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim have been publicly giving the impression that they are feuding over the past few weeks.
Apart from feuding with Zahid, Anwar also appears to be engineering a conflict with Johor UMNO chief Onn Hafiz.
On Monday night, at a Pakatan Harapan ceramah in Muar, Anwar urged Johor voters to choose state leaders who are intelligent, humble, and aligned with the federal government.
Anwar, who is also PH chairman, said Johor should not be led by those who are confrontational or difficult to work with.
Onn Hafiz has, of course, responded to Anwar's remarks. However, what they are saying in their back-and-forth is not particularly important. The key point is that instead of presenting the message that BN and PH have put aside their differences and are willing to work together, both sides seem more inclined to signal the opposite by escalating their internal disputes.
Previously, BN held 40 seats in Johor, PH 12 seats, PN 3 seats, and MUDA 1 seat.
The minimum number of seats required to form the state government is 29.
In all likelihood, BN will still be able to form the state government, but perhaps with a reduced majority.
Ideally, I think Anwar and Zahid would prefer BN to remain in power in Johor, but with a significantly reduced majority.
An ideal result, from the perspective of Anwar and Zahid, might look something like BN 25 seats, PH 7 seats, and PAS-PN 24 seats.
Under such circumstances, BN would still be able to govern Johor, but only with the support of PH.
Apart from strengthening the case for the need for the unity government to prevail, such a result would also demonstrate to a demoralised PH-BN base that unless they unite behind the unity government, PAS-PN has a realistic chance of taking power nationally.
At the same time, such an outcome would weaken state leaders such as Onn Hafiz who are perceived as unwilling to align themselves with the central leadership.
If this strategy works, then the Negeri Sembilan election, held a few weeks after Johor, could see PH and BN repairing their relationship and regaining voter support for the unity government.
If Negeri Sembilan subsequently shows stronger support for the unity government, then a general election could be called soon afterwards.
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