All of us who observe Malaysian politics would surely have noticed two peculiar trends occurring in our political landscape in recent months.
The first trend is that state chapters of political parties are increasingly taking positions that are distinctly different from those of their national leadership.
We first saw this trend in Perlis last December, when Bersatu ADUNs in the state moved independently — and in opposition to the wishes of their national leadership — to topple the PAS-led Perlis state government, despite PAS and Bersatu cooperating at the national level.
Following Perlis, the Negeri Sembilan chapter of UMNO also moved independently and in opposition to the wishes of its national leadership by attempting to topple the PH-led state government of Negeri Sembilan, even though PH and UMNO are cooperating at the federal level.
Just a couple of weeks ago, Johor UMNO also announced that it intends to contest all state seats in Johor in the coming state elections, much to the chagrin of its national leadership, which is more inclined towards cooperation with PH at the national level.
This has created a situation where the state leaderships of various parties are increasingly seen as exerting independence from their national leadership.
Other than political parties, the monarchies of various states are also increasingly moving to assert greater sovereignty for their respective states vis-à-vis Putrajaya.
The Johor Sultanate, for example, has long displayed such an independent streak.
But recently, even the Negeri Sembilan, Selangor and Pahang Sultanates have shown similar inclinations.
When UMNO ADUNs withdrew support from the Aminuddin Harun-led state government in Negeri Sembilan last month, for example, it was the reassurance of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan that ensured the Aminuddin Harun government was not toppled despite losing its majority in the state assembly.
The Sultan of Selangor also recently issued a decree banning pig farming in Selangor, which can be interpreted as the Selangor Palace attempting to exert greater autonomy over the administration of the state than it traditionally has.
Just a couple of days ago, the Tengku Mahkota of Pahang ordered the Malaysian Armed Forces to seek prior consent from the Sultan of Pahang before conducting military training exercises in the state.
One way of interpreting this development is that the Pahang Palace is also increasingly attempting to exert greater autonomy from Putrajaya.
When we look at the moves by the royal institutions of various states, alongside the increasingly independent behaviour of state chapters of political parties, one of the defining features of GE16 that may emerge is the assertion of state rights over federal authority.
In Malaysia, it has usually only been in Sarawak and Sabah that political actors openly sought to assert autonomy from Putrajaya.
States in Semenanjung have traditionally fallen in line with their national leadership.
This may change as GE16 approaches.
In GE16, one of the major themes we may see unfolding is the contest between state rights and federal authority — where state chapters of national parties, with the tacit consent of the rulers, may increasingly seek to distance themselves from their national leadership.
At the same time, voters in Semenanjung — much like voters in Sabah and Sarawak traditionally have — may begin voting more on the basis of who governs the state rather than who governs the federation.
Of course, this is not yet a certainty.
But the growing state-versus-federation dynamic is increasingly becoming something we must closely observe in the lead-up to GE16.
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