Party loyalties may matter more than campaign promises among early voters
MELAKA: Early votes could determine the outcome in closely contested constituencies in the Melaka election, with analysts saying the relatively small voting bloc should not be underestimated because of its concentration in several key seats.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities director Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said the 12,531 early voters were not evenly distributed across the state’s 28 constituencies, making their influence potentially significant in marginal contests.
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“Some constituencies, especially Sungai Udang, have a large concentration of early voters, while others include Asahan, Pengkalan Batu and Ayer Keroh.
“In seats for which the winning margin is only 200 or 300 votes, or even below 1,000, early voters could influence the outcome.”
He said early-voter participation had generally been higher than ordinary turnout, increasing the weight of such ballots when winning margins were narrow.
Mazlan said these votes could also affect the overall balance of power if the final contest for control of the state assembly came down to one or two seats.
“No party should underestimate these 12,000-plus early voters simply because of their numbers.
“They are extremely important. They could even determine the formation of a government if a coalition needs just one or two more seats.”
He said Pakatan Harapan (PH) had focused on federal civil service salary increases, while Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) had emphasised the state administration’s performance and continuity of governance.
“PH is presenting salary adjustments as a direct benefit to security personnel and civil servants while BN is highlighting the track record of the state administration.”
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the distribution of early voters mattered more than their approximately 1.8 per cent share of Melaka’s registered electorate.
“A difference of several hundred votes may be enough to decide whether a candidate wins or loses in a closely fought constituency.
“However, military and police personnel do not automatically support the incumbent government. Their decisions are also shaped by family welfare, living costs, confidence in leadership and administrative performance.”
He said PH’s emphasis on federal salary adjustments offered a different appeal from BN-PN’s manifesto commitments involving housing, household expenses and economic development.
“PH is highlighting direct income benefits while BN-PN is stressing administrative continuity and public welfare.
“However, salary increases alone do not necessarily translate into political support because voters can distinguish between the federal government’s achievements and the choice of a state government.”
Sunway University political analyst Prof Dr Wong Chin Huat said historical party loyalties could matter more than individual campaign pledges.
“Early voting by mostly police and military officers used to be BN’s vote bank, and in recent years have been largely shared by BN and PN.
“I suspect the voting trend would follow partisan inclination, advantageous for BN-PN, and specific offers would have only marginal impacts.”
The Election Commission (EC) said 9,917 voters were eligible to cast early ballots yesterday, comprising 7,472 military personnel and their spouses, and 2,445 police personnel.
According to the EC’s election dashboard, early-voter turnout stood at 94.88 per cent, with 9,409 ballots cast out of the 9,917 voters reflected in its tally as of 4.30 pm yesterday.
