Analysts have warned that the recent boat tragedy in southern Thailand, which left over 30 people dead – including children – and dozens more unaccounted for, will not be the last if peace is not restored in conflict-ravaged Myanmar.
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said that despite Saturday’s incident – likely the deadliest in recent years near Ko Tarutao Island – it would not deter Myanmar refugees from risking their lives to flee their homeland. .
“Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had expressed his disappointment with the Myanmar junta government’s refusal to accept the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) during his speech at the Asean Summit last month.
“For as long as Myanmar refuses to adopt the 5PC, the crisis will remain unresolved, and its people will continue seeking refuge in other countries, including Malaysia,” Azmi said.
Adopted in April 2021, the Five-Point Consensus calls for an end to violence, inclusive dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy, the provision of humanitarian assistance, and permission for the envoy to engage all stakeholders.
Myanmar has been mired in political and humanitarian turmoil since the military coup of 2021, which overthrew the elected civilian government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
The conflict has further worsened the violent persecution that began in 2017, when military operations forced some 1.3 million ethnic Rohingya to seek shelter in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh or undertake perilous sea journeys to Malaysia and Indonesia.
Universiti Utara Malaysia analyst Associate Prof Dr Mohamad Faisol Keling said the ongoing domestic upheaval in Myanmar has taken a toll on Malaysia, which has had to manage the consequences of refugee arrivals over several decades.
Although Malaysia is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and lacks a formal legal framework for refugees, it currently hosts more than 100,000 Rohingya.
“The government must be firm in protecting our borders against illegal immigrants, as they may pose challenges to our nation and our people,” said Faisol, who lectures at UUM’s College of Law, Government and International Studies.
Criminologist Datuk Dr P. Sundramoorthy underscored the urgency of restoring peace in Myanmar, noting that the issue extends beyond humanitarian concern to regional security.
He said that ongoing violence has intensified transnational crimes such as human trafficking, forced labour, and online scams – with ripple effects across Southeast Asia.
Sundramoorthy added that the recent Rohingya boat tragedy is a stark reminder of how traffickers prey on despair.
“Many victims are aware of the dangers, yet their hopelessness outweighs their fear. Syndicates have adapted their methods, using social media and migrant networks to lure victims with false promises.
“Human trafficking persists not because of lack of laws, but due to weak enforcement, fragmented coordination, and entrenched corruption. The Thai-Malaysian-Myanmar corridor remains a hotspot for such crimes, with operations spanning land, sea, and cyberspace,” he said.
Sundramoorthy, an honorary associate professor at the Centre for Policy Research, Universiti Sains Malaysia, said that while restoring peace in Myanmar is not the sole solution to the Rohingya refugee crisis, it remains the foundation.
“Without political stability and legitimate governance, there can be no lasting solution to displacement, statelessness, or persecution.
“The Rohingya tragedy is rooted in decades of systemic discrimination, but the escalating conflict between junta forces and ethnic militias has deepened suffering, forcing many to flee through dangerous routes controlled by traffickers. In lawless environments, criminal syndicates thrive on chaos and human desperation,” he said.
Beyond pushing for the 5PC, Sundramoorthy stressed that Asean leaders must move from political statements to coordinated action, particularly through enhanced intelligence-sharing and joint enforcement operations.
This includes establishing a centralised Asean intelligence mechanism to improve real-time data exchange on trafficking routes, recruiters, and transport networks.
“Enforcement must also target enablers – such as document forgers, transporters, and corrupt officials – who sustain these illicit operations. This requires internal reform, transparency, and stronger ethical oversight within national agencies,” he said.
He added that preventive strategies must complement punitive ones, by engaging local communities, civil society, and religious groups to monitor coastal areas and border settlements where traffickers operate.
Empowering local actors, he said, helps build early-warning systems and fosters trust with law enforcement.
“Asean should also strengthen its technological capabilities to track digital recruitment and financial flows linked to human trafficking and scam operations. Criminals increasingly rely on online platforms, and traditional policing alone cannot keep pace,” Sundramoorthy added.
Meanwhile, Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail told reporters in Langkawi on Wednesday that authorities had recovered over 25 bodies, while 14 migrants had been rescued since Saturday. Thai authorities reported the recovery of seven bodies.
Following the latest tragedy, Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) Malaysia also urged the government to guarantee immediate medical and psychological care for all survivors to address their urgent health needs.
MSF Malaysia head of mission Aymen Abdullah also called on the government to ensure that no one fleeing persecution or seeking safety is punished or detained after being rescued.
“With these critical steps, Malaysia can set a compassionate and humanitarian standard for the region – in line with Asean’s vision of inclusivity and the goal of ‘leaving no one behind’,” she said in a statement.
In response, Saifuddin said: “At the moment, we have not officially used the term ‘refugees’. We refer to them only as ‘persons found’ until the investigation is completed. The investigation will determine the appropriate classification and next course of action.”
For the record, in February 2021, the Malaysian government deported 1,068 Myanmar nationals. In February 2023, another 114 Muslim Myanmar nationals were repatriated despite warnings from human rights groups that they risked persecution by the military government.
Main image: Rescuers from the Fire and Rescue Department with a body recovered near Pulau Anak Datai, Langkawi, Kedah, on Wednesday as the Search and Rescue (SAR) operation continues Image – Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency.