Andy Burnham’s rapid ascension to the position of Britain’s next prime minister now appears all but confirmed. Nominations for the next Labour leader are open, and no other MP is thought to have the support needed to challenge the former Manchester mayor.
It is an historic and unprecedented episode in British politics, as a member of Parliament elected only last month – although previously an MP for 16 years – looks set to enter No 10 unopposed.
Assuming no other challengers, Mr Burnham should become Labour leader on 17 August, and prime minister three days later when he is invited by King Charles III to form his government.
There are now growing questions about what the UK might look like with Mr Burnham leading the country, as the veteran politician ramps up his appearances in the weeks before his coronation to give clues on the direction of the government to come.
Here’s what his premiership could mean for the country:
Taking Manchesterism to Westminster
At the heart of Mr Burnham’s plan for Britain is “Manchesterism”, a political vision that, in short, brings together elements of devolution and nationalisation.
Informed by his time as mayor of Manchester, Mr Burnham has called for greater powers and funding decisions to be given to regional leaders who are best-placed to understand the needs of their community.
This often includes greater power to control public services, as characterised by Manchester’s successful “Bee Network”. Comprising bus and tram routes across the city, the development of the scheme saw ownership of the infrastructure wrested from several private companies in a move that gave local decision-makers full control.
This approach could be expanded on the national stage, Mr Burnham has indicated, through both the full or part-nationalisation of public services and the decentralisation of political decision-making. In effect, the latter means taking some decisions away from Westminster, and giving councils and combined authorities “the control [they] need”.
Speaking to Channel 4 News on the campaign trail, Mr Burnham said “deindustrialisation and privatisation” of Britain had left areas like Makerfield “without good jobs and people unable to afford the basics”.
He said: “We need a different path completely. What is that path? Put more things back under stronger public control: energy, housing, water, transport.
“I’ve done that with buses in Greater Manchester. I was the first to do it. Margaret Thatcher deregulated them … and then they just work for the private shareholders and not for the paying public.”
On Defence: ‘Rebuild hard power’
Before returning as a Labour MP, Mr Burnham’s thinking in areas like foreign policy and defence were less clear than on domestic issues.
He has been sure to give more detail on this in the run-up to his coronation, writing in July that increasing Britain’s national security will be his “first priority” should he become prime minister.
“We face an increasingly dangerous world, with growing Russian aggression, conflict in the Middle East, climate and energy insecurity, and technology rapidly changing the nature of war abroad and our security at home,” he wrote for The Times.
He set out several priorities on defence, the first being to ensure stability by retaining the UK’s commitment to Nato and to the country’s nuclear deterrent.
Maintaining a relationship with the US and Europe remains imperative, he added, alongside pledging unwavering support for Ukraine.
Mr Burnham also pledged that his government would also rebuild Britain’s hard power by upgrading current military equipment through the defence investment plan. This could have the bonus effect of creating economic growth and jobs in communities “that have seen opportunities drain away.”
Economy and taxation
In a similar vein, Mr Burnham has said he is committed to “strong public control and direction” over the UK’s investment strategy to drive economic growth. Responding to former prime minister Tony Blair’s controversial essay last month, he said Manchester’s growth did not “come about by leaving things to the market”.
Elsewhere, the new Makerfield MP has said he is committed to chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules, which are designed to bring government debt levels down.
On tax, Mr Burnham has also recommitted to the Labour pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance this parliament. However, he has indicated he would “develop a policy” to address concerns over the controversial freeze on the income tax personal allowance, which has dragged thousands of workers into paying more since 2021.
Other taxation stances Mr Burnham has indicated he holds are:
- Replacing council tax with a land value tax
- A plan to look “in detail” at a wealth tax
- Scrapping inheritance tax in favour of a social care levy
- Cutting employers’ national insurance contributions for smaller employers
- A 20 per cent cut in business rates for small or independent businesses
Brexit
Mr Burnham has said he will not try to return the UK to the EU, arguing that the country would be stuck in a “permanent rut if we’re just constantly arguing”.
His comments came after Wes Streeting, who had planned to run in a leadership contest before backing Mr Burnham, said the UK should rejoin the EU in a key intervention after resigning as health secretary. Mr Burnham said: “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is rerun those arguments.”
But the former Manchester mayor has said that he wants to work more closely with Europe on defence, writing in his Times op-ed: “I want to consolidate the progress made on the existing UK-EU negotiations and make further progress quickly, including by strengthening our co-operation on illegal migration, economic security and the broader resilience of our societies to external threats – from terrorism to AI-driven disinformation.”
It may seem sudden, but Mr Burnham’s decision to lay out his political vision in such detail over the past few months indicates that his sales pitch to the Labour MPs, members and the nation has been long in the making.
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