KUALA LUMPUR — Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is facing renewed pressure to consider an early general election following the dissolution of the Johor state assembly and growing speculation that Negeri Sembilan could follow suit, although political analysts are divided on whether he should seek a fresh mandate this year or wait until 2027.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Professor Syaza Shukri believes Anwar might personally prefer to hold the 16th General Election (GE16) later to focus on governance and key reforms before confronting another electoral test.
“I believe Anwar wants more time, at least until after the upcoming June-July parliamentary sitting, so that he can push through some matters such as the separation of the Attorney General and Public Prosecutor roles.
“But it seems that he may need to reconsider, now that Johor has dissolved its assembly, and the possibility that Negeri Sembilan may follow suit. I think Anwar is not happy because it changes the calculation,” the associate professor told Scoop.
Syaza said the benefits of holding GE16 concurrently with polls in Johor, and possibly Negeri Sembilan, include cost savings.
And an early GE alongside the state elections could work to Pakatan Harapan's (PH) advantage, particularly in states where voter turnout is heavily influenced by outstation voters returning home.
“Although it appears that the situation within PKR and PH is still unsettled, at least we know that if elections are held simultaneously, PH's chances are better in states such as Johor and Melaka because voters will return home to vote,” she said.
Whether GE16 is sooner or later, however, the fact that Barisan Nasional (BN) plans to contest separately in Johor complicates the matter for PH.
“I believe BN wants the Johor state election (sooner) because they are banking on a state election (separate from the GE) for an easy win,” Syaza said.
And if held concurrently with the Johor polls, it is pressure to obtain a fresh mandate at the federal level regarding PH-BN cooperation.
A GE sooner rather than later also catches PH on the back foot, particularly when PKR is still dealing with internal tensions and DAP continues to manage concerns among supporters regarding its role within the unity government.
But GE next year could also create another headache for Anwar if BN emerges stronger from the upcoming contests.
“If the general election is held in early 2027, the results in Johor and possibly Negeri Sembilan could affect the general election if BN wins, and this could undermine PH,” she said.
Wiser to wait?
Socio-political analyst Datuk Professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the pressure Anwar faces is political rather than constitutional, as his government still has a parliamentary majority.
While Johor's dissolution has heightened election speculation nationwide, the Prime Minister remains under no legal obligation to call a general election in the immediate future, said the academic from Universiti Malaya’s Academy of Malay Studies.
Awang Azman argued that the better option for Anwar would be to wait until next year, unless there is a genuine threat to the government's parliamentary majority. Parliament’s automatic expiry, and the end of the unity government’s term, is only in February 2028.
“The wiser option would be to wait at least until next year to allow economic policies, institutional reforms, subsidy targeting measures and the cost-of-living agenda to produce clearer results.
“An early general election would only be appropriate if PH-BN-GPS-GRS are truly united, the opposition is divided, and public sentiment can be managed,” he said, referring to the ruling coalitions in Sabah and Sarawak.
He added that while the outcomes in Johor and possibly Negeri Sembilan may not directly threaten the federal government, they could influence coalition dynamics and strategic calculations heading into GE16.
Negeri Sembilan and Johor together
Geostrategist Professor Dr Azmi Hassan sees it as more crucial for PH to dissolve the Negeri Sembilan state assembly, where it has lost the confidence of all 14 BN assemblymen, and hold elections concurrently with Johor.
He said BN is attempting to build momentum with the Johor contest for future elections, and PH cannot afford to allow Johor to become a launching pad for BN's broader election campaign.
“BN chose Johor first because they are confident the outcome will favour them. In fact, I believe they can retain their existing seats and possibly gain a few more at the expense of Perikatan Nasional, which is currently facing internal turmoil.
“BN wants to use the Johor result as momentum for Melaka afterwards. That is why PH cannot afford to wait in Negeri Sembilan until after Johor because the momentum would belong to BN,” Azmi said.
He suggested that a concurrent election in Negeri Sembilan could help blunt BN's momentum, although he acknowledged that the political environment there is not necessarily favourable to PH.
“The problem is that under the current circumstances, Umno in Negeri Sembilan has a slight advantage over Pakatan Harapan in the state.
“This creates the perception that Umno is doing a better job of safeguarding the interests of the monarchy and, by extension, the interests of the Malays, compared with PH,” he said, in reference to the recent controversy involving the Negeri Sembilan constitution with PH and the Yang di-Pertuan Besar on one side, and Umno-BN with the four regional chieftains (Undangs) on the other. - June 3, 2026
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