KUALA LUMPUR: Apex Securities Bhd has raised its 2026 export forecast for Malaysia to 26.2% from 16.3%, underpinned by robust export growth in the first seven months of the year.
In a note yesterday, the securities firm said this is consistent with its positive GDP growth outlook of 5% this year.
“Going forward, we expect the electric and electronic sector to remain resilient and drive overall export momentum in the second half of 2026 (2H’26), with structural growth in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and other related industrial segments supporting a steady order pipeline over the medium term,” it said.
It is also particularly positive on commodity exports in 2H’26, as elevated crude oil prices and potential trade diversion arising from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz should support Malaysia’s oil and gas exports.
Separately, firmer B50 biodiesel demand from Indonesia should keep palm oil demand supported, while the anticipated intensification of El Niño, with hotter and drier weather conditions between October and December, should underpin firmer palm oil prices.
Apex Securities said palm oil prices had risen 16.8% to RM4,596 per metric tonne as of Aug 19 since the start of the year.
“That said, exports may face increasing headwinds towards year-end as front-loaded demand from earlier stockpiling activities unwinds, alongside an unfavourable high base from the corresponding period last year.
“Other key risks include a steep re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighing on global demand, as well as uncertainty surrounding US trade policy,” it said.
It noted that Malaysia remains exposed to higher tariffs as the US Section 301 investigation into excess capacity is still ongoing. – Bernama
