HIGHER fuel and electricity costs could have pushed inflation above 5.0 percent last month, analysts said.
The median forecast in a Manila Times poll was 5.6 percent, markedly higher than the 4.1 percent recorded in March but within the BSP’s estimate of 5.6 to 6.4 percent for the month.
If realized, inflation will have stayed above the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target for a second straight month. It will also be the highest since September 2023’s 6.1 percent.
Data for April will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority this Tuesday, May 5.
With the lowest forecast of 5.0 percent, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said consumer price growth would have exceeded target anew due to rising price pressures across multiple fronts.
“Higher global commodity prices are feeding into categories like transportation and food,” she said.
“Electricity tariffs have also edged up and the weaker peso is adding to imported inflation.”
Meanwhile, Security Bank Corp. economist Angelo Taningco and ANZ Research said inflation could have accelerated to 5.5 percent.
Taningo said “higher prices of rice, petroleum, utilities, and peso depreciation” would have pushed inflation higher while ANZ Research said higher fuel costs would keep pushing fertilizer and food prices up in the coming months.
“The pre-emptive rate hike by the BSP ... is expected to help anchor inflation expectations and contain the buildup of second‑round effects,” it said.
Metrobank Research also said that headline inflation would remain elevated at 5.6 percent as the global oil crisis was continuing to adversely impact domestic prices.
“With how critical oil and fuel are to food production, oil inflation likely impacted food prices as well,” it said.
Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Miguel Chanco said April inflation could come in at a relatively high 5.8 percent, with food and transport costs likely pushing the headline rate higher.
“Inflation, even if it peaks in the next month or two, likely will remain stubborn and sticky for the rest of this year,” he added.
“This will put more pressure on already burdened Filipino households, which are facing headwinds both cyclically (from the job market) and structurally (due to still-weak balance sheets).”
HSBC Global Research senior economist Aris Dacanay said headline inflation likely climbed to 6.0 percent year-on-year in April, the fastest pace since May 2023.
He noted that while fuel prices eased toward the end of the month, gasoline still jumped 25 percent month-on-month and diesel surged 46 percent.
“With rice and energy being large components of the Philippine CPI (consumer price index) basket, second-order effects on inflation — particularly in restaurants, furnishings, and nonvolatile food items — might have pushed inflation higher,” Dacanay said.
“Nonetheless, it will be key to monitor how much core inflation rises. Private consumption in the Philippines remains on a weak footing,” he added.
With the highest forecast of 6.2 percent, Chinabank economist Domini Velasquez said price pressures would have come from higher fuel and LPG (liquid petroleum gas) costs, along with increases in key food items such as rice, meat, fruits, eggs and cooking oil.
“We expect inflation to remain above six percent for the rest of the year,” she said. “Uncertainty surrounding a lasting resolution to the Middle East conflict continues to pose upside risks to global oil prices and, consequently, domestic fuel prices.”
“In addition, constrained fertilizer supply and the potential onset of El Niño could weigh down agricultural output and lead to higher food prices.”
NIÑA MYKA PAULINE ARCEO
