AN alarming warning was issued by the Department of Agriculture (DA) this week, which said the country’s rice production could drop by 700,000 metric tons, about 3.5 percent of normal output, due to the anticipated strong El Niño event later this year. In response, the DA has reconvened its El Niño task force and planned a number of mitigating measures, including cloud seeding to boost rainfall, the installation of solar-powered irrigation systems, changes in the planting schedule to correspond with the northeast monsoon, or “habagat,” and promoting crop diversification. These appear to be reasonable steps and might, in fact, be the practical limit of what the DA can do. What is concerning, however, is that so far, we have heard little to nothing from any other agency about preparations for what will almost certainly be a calamitous climactic event.
El Niño is a phenomenon in which ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than average for an extended period that can last from a few months to a year or more. It happens at irregular intervals, usually about every two to three years, usually beginning between June and August, and peaking in November or December. The usual impact of El Niño on the Philippines is a period of significantly hotter and drier-than-normal conditions extending into the spring and summer of the following year, punctuated by stronger than normal typhoons.
Climate and weather monitoring agencies, such as the World Meteorological Organization and the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, have already declared this year’s El Niño under way, and in the latest updates, have forecast an above-90 percent probability that it will be a so-called Super El Niño. This is an extremely rare occurrence, having only been recorded four times in history. A Super El Niño is one in which the elevated ocean temperatures are 2.0 degrees Celsius or more above the historical average, which does not sound like much, but is nearly double what is experienced with a “typical” El Niño. This will wreak absolute mayhem on weather patterns all over the world, and will greatly amplify the anticipated effects on the Philippines.
The problem we are facing here in the Philippines is one of a sort of complacency. The country has experienced the effects of El Niño numerous times, and there is a sense among government officials and the public alike that we know what to expect. The DA will take steps such as those described above to mitigate the impact on the farm sector, the public health sector will heighten its vigilance of heat-related health concerns, and local government units will be reminded to review and adjust their typhoon and weather disaster response plans in case strong storms hit the country. What may be coming, or what we are being told now is almost certainly coming, will very likely overwhelm those preparations, and cause problems in areas that are not even being considered at the moment.
For example, a prolonged period of hotter-than-normal weather will put a severe strain on our already stretched-thin energy infrastructure, not just in terms of supply, but also in terms of the additional costs that will be borne by consumers during a time when food prices will be elevated due to the effects of El Niño on agricultural output. The impact of drought conditions will also put water supplies at risk, something that was experienced but never really solved during the last strong El Niño in 2014–2016. All across the country, flood control infrastructure, badly compromised by years of rampant corruption, remains unfinished. On the economic side, the inevitable decline in productivity from adverse climactic conditions has yet to be addressed, or even considered in government planning.
“Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” is a trite old aphorism, but an eminently sensible one, and it should be the watchword for the government in preparing for the impact of El Niño. At the same time, businesses and ordinary households should not wait for the government to save them from a calamity when it happens, but should take whatever steps are possible to minimize the potential effects. Practicing energy and water conservation, having a home or business emergency response plan, and above all, educating oneself with reliable information about the risks posed by El Niño are all things everyone can do to protect themselves, their families and their assets.
