TO meet the urgent need to decarbonize aviation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) economies could produce up to 8.5 million barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to the Asean SAF 2050 Outlook report released on Jan. 23.
SAF is a renewable or waste-derived aviation fuel that meets sustainability criteria and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. It is compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure as a “drop-in” fuel. Asean’s key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste and forestry residues.
Providing a regional supply chain assessment for 2030, 2040 and 2050, the report examines potential SAF demand and supply scenarios across Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, as well as import markets including Japan, Singapore and the Republic of Korea (ROK).
The report says that all these Asean countries examined could potentially have sufficient capacity to position themselves as net SAF exporters. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, in particular, have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production. The last three countries also have the most cost-efficient distribution for markets in Japan, Singapore and the ROK, the same nations which will have the largest SAF demands in 25 years’ time, along with Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
Asean by then will become a significant market for SAF in its own right: demand in the region is projected to grow from 15,000 barrels per day in 2030 to over 700,000 barrels per day by 2050.
The report recognizes that potential SAF supply volumes “exceeded their expected domestic demand.” This excess can open opportunities for SAF trade to be conducted by Asean in other farther locations like Australia, New Zealand, Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
The report says that hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) is the most prevalent technology for producing SAF today, costing about twice as much as jet fuel, with the largest cost contributor being feedstock. Alternative Gasification/Fischer-Tropsch, and alcohol-to-jet and hydrothermal liquefaction pathways could be from four to seven times more expensive. However, it is expected that this gap can be reduced by the advancement and scaling-up of technology.
Satvinder Singh, deputy secretary-general for the Asean Economic Community, says the report “confirms our region’s strong comparative advantage on the supply side, particularly in the availability of sustainable bio-feedstocks.”
Rapid growth
Singh adds that at the same time, rising regional and global demand for SAF presents a clear market opportunity for Asean. To fully capitalize on both demand and supply dynamics, Asean member states should work together to scale up production capacity, deploy cost-effective technologies, and establish robust regional trade and market frameworks.
“By efficiently matching our abundant agricultural resources with growing SAF demand, Asean can position itself not only as a self-sufficient and competitive sustainable aviation hub, but also as a reliable energy supplier supporting the decarbonization of the broader Asia-Pacific aviation and energy markets,” Singh says.
Sharmine Tan, Boeing’s regional sustainability lead for Southeast Asia, says that Southeast Asia’s commercial aviation industry is growing rapidly to serve the region’s expanding economies and meet demand from passengers and for air cargo.
“In addition to adding more fuel-efficient airplanes to the fleet, increasing Southeast Asia’s supply of SAF will further enable responsible growth. The report shows the region’s strong potential to increase SAF production with the right policies, partnerships and investments,” Tan says.
Sachin Narang, GHD’s executive advisor–Energy and Infrastructure, says, “We are at an exciting juncture with respect to SAF because Asean has an abundance of agricultural and forestry waste that could serve as low-cost feedstock, narrowing the premium between HEFA-derived SAF and jet fuel.”
At the same time, Narang notes that policy intervention, overall targeted interventions, scaling and innovation can narrow the cost gap for alternative SAF pathways over the medium to long term.
The report was developed by GHD through financial support provided by Global Affairs Canada from the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development. It was implemented by Cowater International in association with the Institute of Public Administrators of Canada and Global Affairs Canada, with Boeing as the knowledge partner and support from the Asean Secretariat.
With more than 12,000 professionals across more than 160 offices on five continents, professional services company GHD operates in the global markets of water, energy, resources, environment, property and transportation.
