Astronomers have discovered a potentially hazardous asteroid that has a chance of smashing into Earth in 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is 44 million kilometres (27m miles) from Earth, travelling at a velocity of 13.5 km/s, according to Nasa’s Eyes on Asteroid.
Measuring roughly 60-metres across, the space rock is currently the only Near-Earth Object (NEO) that has been placed at a level three on the Torino impact scale, which gives it the highest probability of impact of any other large objects being tracked by Nasa and other space agencies.
Discovered on Christmas Day by the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona, the potential impact date is scheduled for 22 December 2032, however astronomers say the odds of a collision are around 1-in-83.
David Rankin from the Catalina Sky Survey said the current offs are “one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever”.
This figure is only a rough estimation, with more observations needed to give a better idea of how close it will actually come.
“Recently-discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in eight years,” said Tony Dunn, an amateur astronomer who shared a visualisation of the asteroid on X (formerly Twitter).
“It is thought to be 40-100 metres wide. Uncertainty is still high and more observations are needed to confirm this.”
Dunn’s animation of the asteroid shows it skimming Earth at an altitude of 458km, with its trajectory altered by the planet’s gravitational pull.
This is less than half the distance of most low-Earth orbit satellites, suggesting that it could even be pulled into Earth’s atmosphere at that altitude.
The “risk corridor” for impact stretches from South America, across central Africa and up towards India and South-East Asia.however this could shift as new data emerges.
How devastating the impact will potentially be will depend not only on the size of the asteroid, but also its composition. By comparison, the asteroid that ended the age of the dinosaur is estimated to be between 10 and 15 kilometres wide.