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INDONESIA is bracing for an unusually severe and prolonged dry season in 2026, with forest and land fires already escalating ahead of the anticipated onset of El Nino, the climate phenomenon known to bring hotter temperatures, reduced rainfall, and extended dry spells to Southeast Asia.
The country’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency projected a 50 to 60 per cent probability of a weak to moderate El Nino developing by the latter half of the year, raising concerns that drought conditions may worsen.
The National Research and Innovation Agency offered an even grimmer outlook, warning on March 19 that a massive climate event, dubbed “Godzilla El Nino,” could strike as early as April.
The early warning comes as fire activity in Sumatra and Kalimantan is already on the rise.
The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported that between January 1 and March 24, fires consumed 2,713 hectares of forest and land in Riau, representing a doubling of fire incidents compared with the same period in 2025.
Historically, Riau, along with South Sumatra and Jambi, has been a major contributor to the severe transboundary haze that periodically drifts into Singapore and other parts of Southeast Asia, notably in 2013 and 2015.
In response, Riau provincial authorities declared an emergency alert for forest and land fires on February 13, in effect until November 30. Edy Afrizal, head of Riau’s provincial disaster management agency (BPBD), explained: “The weather in Riau this year is much hotter. We normally have some rain around the end of January and then March, but this year, we didn’t.”
Riau, situated on the Equator, experiences two dry spells annually, unlike most of Indonesia, which typically faces a single mid-year dry season.
The worst-affected areas currently include Dumai city and the regencies of Pelalawan and Bengkalis. While around 400 residents in Dumai have been affected by haze from fires outside their villages, Edy noted that the distance has largely shielded them from the “most choking” effects.
Fires in Bengkalis and Pelalawan are mostly remote, with only limited encroachment on inhabited areas, such as a rubber plantation in Pedekik village.
“Village officers, the provincial disaster management agency and volunteers are continuously working to douse fires in villagers’ plantations and other lands,” said Masykur, Pedekik village secretary.
Airborne assistance from Jakarta has included six water-bombing helicopter missions and three cloud-seeding operations, which successfully induced rain hours later. Edy indicated that more resources are needed, ideally between eight and 12 water-bombing helicopters for Riau.
Other provinces, including Central Kalimantan and the Riau Islands, are also experiencing rising hot spots, though with less severity.
Central Kalimantan saw 321 hectares of forest and land burned between January 1 and March 25.
The province was at the centre of Indonesia’s devastating 2015 fires, which consumed over 584,000 hectares and blanketed parts of Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia in toxic haze for months.
The disaster caused widespread school, business, and airport closures and triggered severe respiratory illnesses in over half a million people, according to BNPB.
In addition to firefighting, authorities are intensifying preventive measures.
Police in the Riau Islands launched a social media campaign against land burning, posting a one-minute animated video on Instagram on March 24 to highlight the dangers of slash-and-burn methods and the legal consequences, which can include up to 15 years’ imprisonment.
The video warned that even minor negligence during the dry season, such as tossing a cigarette, can spark fires that destroy thousands of hectares, disrupt the economy, and endanger public health.
Dr Abdul Muhari, BNPB’s head of data, information and communication, said on March 26: “Fire extinguishment efforts and land patrols have continued to prevent the spread of the fire.” - March 29, 2026