Kemi Badenoch is set to concede it was a mistake for the Tories to pursue Brexit “without a plan for growth” under Boris Johnson and Theresa May, as she vows not to waste her party’s time in opposition.
The Conservative leader’s admission in a major speech on Thursday will come after new data showed the British economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in November, the month after chancellor Rachel Reeves’s Budget.
While the minimal growth will be of slight relief to the chancellor, after a surprise drop in inflation also helped ease the market turmoil of recent days, the GDP figures were still slightly lower than most economists had expected.
Despite marking a rebound after two months of contraction, the ONS described the economy as “broadly flat” with no growth in the three months to November – with the Institute of Chartered Accountants warning that the “disappointing” figures are “unlikely to ease stagflation concerns”.
And with Donald Trump set to return to the White House next week, business secretary Jonathan Reynolds expressed fears of a tariff war, conceding that the UK is particularly exposed to any resulting economic shocks.
Key Points
- Kemi Badenoch to admit Tories made mistake over Brexit
- UK’s economy grows for first time in three months – but less than expected
- ‘Disappointingly modest’ growth figures ‘unlikely to ease stagflation’ fears
- Minister expresses concern over UK exposure to Trump tariff war
- Breaking: MP Mike Amesbury pleads guilty to assault
Badenoch takes aims at predecessors as she tries to set herself apart as a different politician
12:52
,
Kate Devlin
18 months after Rishi Sunak tried to dunk on his predecessors in a bid to show he was a different kind of politician, the latest leader of the Tory party Kemi Badenoch will do the same today.
She will hit out at Boris Johnon and Theresa May as she says the party had no plan for growth once outside the EU.
May will be in the firing line again as she says the last government announced ‘net zero’ before. again, working out a plan for it.
But as the Sunak comparison shows Ms Badenoch has more in common with some ex-Tory leaders than she might claim.
And her attempt to set herself apart will have to be more successful than Mr Sunak’s widely derided claim to be a ‘change’ agent.
Video report: MP Mike Amesbury pleads guilty to punching man in late-night row over bridge closure
12:47
,
Andy Gregory
Labour accuses Tories of ‘collective amnesia’ ahead of Kemi Badenoch speech
12:29
,
Andy Gregory
Labour has accused the Conservative Party of showing “collective amnesia” over its record in government ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s upcoming speech on Brexit.
Fielding criticism in the Commons over the state of the economy and corruption allegations surrounding Tulip Siddiq, frontbencher Lucy Powell said the Conservatives had forgotten about their economic legacy, or the number of ministers who resigned under Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak.
Ms Powell said: “It really has been quite incredible to watch the collective display of amnesia on the benches opposite over recent weeks. It’s like the last 14 years didn’t happen at all.”
She added: “I see the leader of the opposition is out today, in what has been briefed as her finally telling the truth about the Conservative record.
“That they didn’t have a plan for growth, that they weren’t honest with the British people, that they negotiated a bad Brexit deal, but it sounds like the honourable gentlemen didn’t quite get that memo.”
Campaigner wins High Court battle over ‘unlawful’ consultation on key disability benefits test
12:12
,
Andy Gregory
A consultation over plans to reform a key disability benefits test was unlawful, the High Court has ruled.
In autumn 2023, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced plans to change the way the work capability assessment (WCA) – the test that deems whether someone with a health condition or disability is fit to work – was scored.
Disability rights campaigner Ellen Clifford brought legal action against the government, arguing that the process did not provide people with sufficient information or time to respond to the proposals.
She alleged that the consultation by the then-Tory government did not properly explain that many people would receive significantly less money under the reforms, and would need to meet more conditions to receive their payments, with a risk of sanctions if they did not meet them.
In a judgment on Thursday, Mr Justice Calver said: “I consider that the claimant has surmounted the substantial hurdle of establishing that the consultation was so unfair as to be unlawful.”
In a statement after the ruling, Ms Clifford said: “I am overjoyed that the court has recognised the importance of properly consulting deaf and disabled people on reforms that would leave many worse off by at least £416.19 per month. This is a life-or-death issue.”
Live: David Lammy speaks as Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal called into question
11:50
,
Andy Gregory
Use Trump’s ‘craving’ for a UK state visit to secure backing for Ukraine, Starmer told
11:30
,
Andy Gregory
The UK should only host a state visit with Donald Trump if he “delivers” on support for Ukraine, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has claimed.
In a speech in central London on Thursday morning, Sir Ed said the president-elect “craves” a visit, but it should only be granted following a sit-down summit that would examine financial support for Kyiv.
Sir Ed said: “We have something Trump desperately wants: a state visit. The pageantry at Buckingham Palace. A banquet with the King. We all know he craves it, so I say we give it to him, but only if he delivers what we need first for Britain and Europe’s defence and security.”
He said Mr Trump should “sit down with President Zelensky and other European leaders in a summit convened by the UK to agree how we collectively use the hundreds of billions of dollars, pounds and euros of frozen Russian assets to pay for the weapons Ukraine needs to win the war and beat Putin.
“If Trump delivers on that deal, pushing the necessary measures through Congress, then, and only then, do we roll out the red carpet for a state visit.”
Lib Dems call for new customs union deal with EU
11:20
,
Andy Gregory
Sir Ed Davey has urged the government to seek a new deal with the EU based around a new customs union.
In his first major speech of the year, the Lib Dem leader said: “The UK must be far more positive, far more ambitious, and act with far more urgency. That is why today I’m calling on the government to negotiate, this year, a brand new deal with the EU.
“Not just tinkering around the edges of the botched deal the Conservatives signed a few years ago. But negotiating a better deal for Britain that has at its heart a new UK-EU customs union, to come into force by 2030 at the latest.”
"I'm calling on the government to negotiate, this year, a brand new deal with the EU," Ed Davey says
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 16, 2025
The Liberal Democrat leader calls for a "new UK-EU customs union, to come into force by 2030 at the latest"https://t.co/UeuYJYCFPo pic.twitter.com/yELaFVz2wX
Just 11 per cent of voters expect economy to improve this year, YouGov finds
11:14
,
Andy Gregory
Just over one in 10 voters expect the UK economy to improve over the next 12 months, new YouGov polling suggests, in a gloomy assessment of Sir Keir Starmer’s vows to “relentlessly” pursue growth.
Conversely, 63 per cent of those surveyed this week expect the economy to deteriorate over the next year, with 17 per cent expecting the situation to remain roughly unchanged.
According to YouGov: “This is a clear increase in negativity, with just 51 per cent having expected the economy to get worse over the next year when we asked following the 2024 October Budget. Indeed, this is the highest level of economic pessimism since late 2022.”
63% of Britons expect the economy to get worse over the next year, with 47% expecting the same of their household finances
— YouGov (@YouGov) January 16, 2025
Economy over next 12 months
Get worse: 63%
Stay about the same: 17%
Get better: 11%
Household finances over next 12 months
Get worse: 47%
Stay about the… pic.twitter.com/umuzjokrrJ
Similarly, 52 per cent believe Rachel Reeves is doing a bad job as chancellor. Just 13 per cent believe she is doing a good job, the fewest Britons saying so of a chancellor since Kwasi Kwarteng in September 2022, the month in which his disastrous mini-Budget was unveiled.
Breaking: MP Mike Amesbury pleads guilty to assault over street attack
10:47
,
Andy Gregory
MP Mike Amesbury has pleaded guilty to assaulting a man in a street bust-up last year.
The Runcorn and Helsby MP admitted attacking the 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Main Street in Frodsham, Cheshire, when he appeared at Chester Magistrates Court on Thursday morning. The incident happened on 26 October at 2.48am.
Amesbury was suspended from the Labour Party after footage emerged which appeared to show him punching a man. He now sits in Parliament as an Independent.
Bryony Gooch reports:
Current economic woes ‘do not seem UK-specific’, hedge fund analysts say
10:36
,
Andy Gregory
The recent turmoil in the UK government bond markets does not seem to be UK specific, hedge fund analysts have suggested.
Comparing the current situation with the Liz Truss Budget debacle, when UK gilt yields soared above US Treasury yields, the Man Institute said, as per the FT: “In contrast, the current episode doesn’t seem UK-specific at all – gilt and Treasury yields are largely moving in tandem. So, can we really blame Rachel Reeves?
“Our lesson here is to be careful of what the media are saying.”
What have Tories and Lib Dems said about the latest GDP figures?
10:26
,
Andy Gregory
Responding to the latest figures showing the economy grew just 0.1 per cent in November, Tory shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “Labour inherited the fastest-growing economy in the G7, but this is the third month in a row of disappointing growth figures.
“The chancellor seems content with burying her head in the sand, but this is a crisis made in Downing Street. We need an urgent change of course.”
Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper said: “The chancellor has put the handbrake on the economy with her misguided jobs tax and the consequence is this pitiful rate of growth. Every month this persists means less money in struggling families’ pockets and public services without the funding they need.
“After years of the Conservatives’ economic vandalism, the public was crying out for change but this new government is falling well short of fixing this mess.
“Rachel Reeves needs to see sense and scrap her foolish jobs tax, and pursue a real strategy for growth like fixing our broken trade relationship with our European partners and replacing the broken business rates system.”
Kemi Badenoch ‘certainly didn’t like the numbers’ on Brexit hit to economy, former MP recalls
10:18
,
Andy Gregory
A former SNP MP has suggested that today’s admission that the Tories were mistaken to pursue Brexit without a plan for growth was not the first time Kemi Badenoch displayed scepticism over the economic case for leaving the EU.
Angus Brendan MacNeil – who was among the SNP’s longest-serving MPs and chaired the Commons international trade committee for more than six years – said the now-Tory leader “certainly didn’t like the numbers” on Brexit when they were discussed several years ago.
I remember meeting "No plan" Kemi when she was International Trade Sec & I was Chair of Trade Committee.
— Angus B MacNeil (@AngusBMacNeil) January 16, 2025
She certainly didn't like the numbers - Brexit 5% damage to GDP and all the trade deals with all countries in the world couldn't even amount to 0.8% of GDP. (US only 0.2) https://t.co/ggu0DJy3rQ
Rachel Reeves warned not to target farmers again as she searches for spending cuts
09:57
,
Andy Gregory
Rachel Reeves has been warned that farmers should not be “punished” further as she searches for spending cuts following her inheritance tax raid in the Budget.
The Chancellor has already prompted fury in the countryside with the ‘farming tax’ hike, which critics warn could sound the death knell for family firms in England.
Now fears have been raised that they could be hit by a double whammy if Ms Reeves makes cuts to the Environment Land Management (Elm) scheme.
Our Whitehall editor Kate Devlin reports:
Starmer insists he will be ‘unrelenting’ in pursuit of economic growth
09:47
,
Andy Gregory
Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters during a visit to Ukraine that the government would be “unrelenting” in its pursuit of economic growth.
He said: “It was always going to take time to turn around 14 years of economic failure under the last government. That was always going to take time.
“The figures out today are a step in the right direction, but there’s much, much more we’ve got to do and that we will do. We’re going to be unrelenting when it comes to driving our economy forward - changing the planning rules, changing regulation.
“The chancellor’s having a session today with the regulators. We’re unrelenting on this because we intend to turn this around, to get back economic growth.”
Talks with regulators aimed at balancing safeguards with growth, minister says
09:41
,
Andy Gregory
The business secretary has said upcoming talks in Downing Street with regulators about how to boost growth were not about scrapping important safeguards.
He told ITV’s Good Morning Britain: “On regulation, I talk to business people every day, as you would expect, and this is the biggest thing that they raise. And it’s not a request for for deregulation, for taking away these important things. It’s for regulators balancing those in the correct way against what needs to happen on growth.”
He gave the cost of Consumer Duty, which sets higher and clearer standards of consumer protection across financial services, as an example.
“An insurance company told me last week that the Consumer Duty, that’s part of what we put on to financial services ... cost 20 times the impact assessment of what that would mean. And that is money that could have gone into jobs, to investment.”
He said the issue is “how we balance growth against security and making sure we’re not keeping people safe by stopping whole areas of economic activity together”. Countries such as Australia and Singapore “do this better”, he added.
Chancellor insists she is ‘returning stability’ to the economy
09:32
,
Andy Gregory
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has insisted that it will take time to revive the UK economy.
Asked if she had snuffed out growth since taking office, she said: “The truth is the British economy has barely grown for the last 14 years and that’s why we’ve had a cost-of-living crisis and why British people are worse-off.
“This new government has come in with a determination, a number one mission, to grow the economy. That takes time.”
She defended her Budget decisions, insisting “the most important thing to grow the economy is returning stability” which she had done by addressing the public finances.
“We saw that under the last Conservative government, when they played fast and loose with the public finances, it is ordinary working people that pay the price,” said Ms Reeves.
“So, I’ve drawn a line under that instability and ensured that the sums now add up. Combined with investment and reform, I’m determined – and I’m confident – that we can grow our economy and make people better-off.”
Starmer visits wounded Ukrainians at Kyiv hospital
09:24
,
Andy Gregory
Sir Keir Starmer has visited wounded Ukrainians at a Kyiv hospital specialising in treating burns.
After a private tour of the intensive care unit, he met two patients on a rehabilitation ward that receives support from the British Red Cross.
The prime minister said the injuries he saw at the hospital were “a grim reminder of the heavy price that Ukraine is paying”.
One patient called Petro, a civilian from Kyiv with burns across both hands and arms, warned Sir Keir: “If Ukraine falls, so does Europe.”
‘Mood music is not great’ on UK economy, analyst says
09:11
,
Andy Gregory
The “mood music is not great” with the UK economy stagnating, HSBC’s senior UK economist has warned.
Liz Martins told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We had zero growth in the third quarter of this year, a bad start to the fourth quarter, and this number hasn’t done enough to offset that bad start.
“So it does suggest that we’re going to have very low or zero growth for the final quarter as well. We’re not in recession but we’re not doing much growing either.”
Rachel Reeves to host regulators at No 11 in bid to reduce barriers to growth
09:09
,
Andy Gregory
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to hold a meeting with regulators in No 11 on Thursday as she attempts to cut red tape and remove barriers to investment to kickstart sluggish growth.
The chancellor and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds will gather the bosses of the Competition and Markets Authority, Ofcom, Ofwat, Ofgem, the Office of Rail and Road, the Environment Agency and the Civil Aviation Authority to look at reforms to the way they work.
Reacting to the latest sluggish economic growth figures, Ms Reeves said: “After 14 years of economic stagnation, this government’s number one mission is to grow our economy. I will fight every day to deliver that growth and put more money into working people’s pockets.”
UK economy at risk of contracting in final quarter of 2024
09:06
,
Andy Gregory
The paltry 0.1 per cent GDP growth for November means the UK economy would need to grow by at least 0.1 per cent in December just to avoid contracting overall in the final quarter of the year.
However, the Bank of England has pencilled in no growth again for the fourth quarter, following zero expansion in the previous three months.
Minister expresses concerns over UK exposure to Trump tariff war
09:01
,
Andy Gregory
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has admitted that he is worried about a potential tariff war when Donald Trump returns to the White House.
“It’s going to be a challenging time for anyone who is responsible for trade in a big economy because of some of those pledges that were made in the campaign,” he told Sky News.
Asked if he was worried about a tariff war, he said: “I am, because the UK is a very globally-orientated economy, so the exposure, the danger to the UK is actually greater than even some comparable countries around that.
“So, a lot of our work has been preparing for that, engaging early with the new administration.”
He added: “Ultimately, tariffs are paid for by your own people. So, it’s got real pressures in terms of inflation, in terms of your ability to employ people, to export to other markets.”
But he insisted that the UK was “well prepared” and had a “good argument to make” in trade talks with the US, and there is a “chance to get an even better relationship”.
‘Disappointingly modest’ growth figures ‘unlikely to ease stagflation’ fears
08:58
,
Andy Gregory
The new GDP figures are unlikely to ease fears of stagflation in the UK economy, but make the prospect of a cut to the Bank of England’s base rate next month more likely, an analyst has suggested.
“This disappointingly modest return to growth for the UK economy is unlikely to ease stagflation concerns, with a recovery in service sector output helping drive only a slight strengthening in overall activity,” said Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
“November’s uptick is unlikely to have sparked a more notable improvement in economic activity across the fourth quarter with the dramatic damage to confidence from the budget and global uncertainty expected to have suppressed activity in December.
“Beyond the political noise, a key lesson from this financial market turbulence is the need to address our longstanding challenges of poor productivity and persistent supply side constraints, to help better insulate us against these external shocks.
“Though these disappointing figures make a February interest rate cut more probable, concerns over financial market fragility and heightened global inflation risks mean a policy loosening next month is not quite done and dusted.”
Business secretary ‘not satisfied’ with new growth figures
08:47
,
Andy Gregory
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said he is not “satisfied” with the latest economic growth figures for November and that Labour is still promising to have the highest sustained growth of any G7 country.
He told Times Radio: “Look, I’m not saying I’m satisfied with 0.1 per cent, but for monthly GDP figures what you want to see fundamentally is the economy growing.
“We do want that big impact over time, so we turn around what has been a really difficult decade-and-a-half.”
Asked if he would reconfirm the pledge of the UK having the highest sustained growth of any G7 country, he said was “more than happy to do that”, adding: “We want to measure that by people having rising household income.”
He acknowledged it is a “relative measure” that “depends what’s going on in other countries”.
UK’s economy grows for first time in three months – but less than expected
08:46
,
Andy Gregory
The UK economy grew slightly in November after it shrunk in both October and September, latest official figures show.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1 per cent, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics.
It marked a rebound after two months of contraction - although the ONS described the economy as “broadly flat” with no growth over the three-month period to November. Thursday’s figure was also below the 0.2 per cent rise many economists had expected.
It comes after a difficult past couple of weeks for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, after government borrowing costs surged and the value of the pound slumped amid worries over the economy and UK debt levels.
Markets calmed on Wednesday after a surprise fall in inflation - but the paltry growth in the UK economy for November will lead to more questions.
Alex Ross reports:
Kemi Badenoch to admit Tory ‘no plan’ Brexit was a mistake
08:44
,
Andy Gregory
Kemi Badenoch is to own up to a series of mistakes made by the Tory governments she served in but warned that Labour under Keir Starmer is repating the mistakes of Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak.
In a major speech in central London on Thursday, the new Tory leader will admit that leaving the European Union “without a plan for growth” was a mistake by her party under Johnson.
It will be the first time a senior Conservative leader has admitted that the chaos wrought on the UKand damage to its economy caused by Brexit was a huge error.
Our political editor David Maddox has the full report:
08:35
,
Andy Gregory
Good morning, we’ll be using this blog to bring you the latest updates on UK politics, as Kemi Badenoch prepares to make a major speech conceding that the Tories were wrong to leave the European Union “without a plan for growth”.
