THE discovery in late May 2026 of a Chinese floating platform inside the lagoon of Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) immediately raised concern across the Philippines. Although China described it as a temporary scientific research facility, many Filipinos viewed the explanation with skepticism. Their concern stems not from speculation but from experience. The transformation of the Panganiban Reef (Mischief Reef) from modest structures into a heavily fortified military outpost showed how seemingly minor actions can permanently alter the strategic balance in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).
The Philippines’ skepticism is well-founded. In 1995, China described its first structures on Panganiban Reef as shelters for fishermen. Despite repeated diplomatic protests, they gradually became a military outpost with an airstrip, deep-water harbor, radar systems and missile facilities. What began as a limited presence eventually reshaped the strategic landscape of the WPS, proving that incremental actions can create irreversible realities once effective control is established.
The 2012 Bajo de Masinloc standoff reinforced this lesson. After a United States-brokered mediation calling for both sides to withdraw, the Philippines complied. China did not. It has since maintained coast guard and maritime presence around the shoal, often preventing Filipino fishermen from entering the lagoon. For many Filipinos, this remains a reminder that diplomatic assurances cannot replace sustained national presence and credible deterrence. Against this backdrop, even a supposedly temporary floating platform cannot be dismissed lightly.
Bajo de Masinloc is strategically important. Located only about 124 nautical miles from Zambales and well within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), it is a vital fishing ground supporting thousands of Filipino families and national food security. Its surrounding waters are also believed to contain hydrocarbon resources that could strengthen long-term energy security. The shoal also lies along one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, where an estimated $3 trillion to $5 trillion worth of global trade passes annually.
Its importance extends beyond economics. Situated near major sea lanes, Bajo de Masinloc provides an advantageous position for monitoring commercial and military activities across the WPS. Effective control enhances maritime domain awareness, extends military reach, and could support future operations should permanent facilities be established. Protecting the shoal safeguards Philippine sovereign rights, preserves freedom of navigation, and upholds the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) and the 2016 arbitral award, which invalidated China’s expansive nine-dash-line claim.
These realities explain why many subject-matter experts believed that China ultimately seeks to transform Bajo de Masinloc into another fortified military outpost. Such a move would expand the operational reach of its naval and air forces, strengthen surveillance over vital sea lanes, reinforce its anti-access and area-denial capabilities, and complement its military facilities on Panganiban Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef. It would also increase pressure on the Philippines and the broader rules-based international order.
The Philippines has learned painful lessons from both the loss of effective control over Bajo de Masinloc and the militarization of Panganiban Reef. These experiences underscore the need for sustained presence, stronger maritime capabilities, regular patrols, diplomacy backed by credible action, and closer cooperation with allies and like-minded partners.
Defending Bajo de Masinloc and other Philippine maritime features is not an act of provocation but a legitimate exercise of sovereign rights under international law. The challenge is to remain firm without being reckless, principled without abandoning diplomacy, and resolute in protecting its lawful rights and long-term national interests. The lesson is clear: Vigilance, not complacency, remains our country’s strongest safeguard against losing what future generations may never recover.
Raul B. Leyritana
Raul B. Leyritana, 71, is a graduate of the Philippine Military Academy. He is a retired commodore of the Philippine Navy who previously served as the Philippine defense and armed forces attaché to Pakistan.
