THE battle for the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections has narrowed to a three-way tie at the top between Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, Sen. Raffy Tulfo and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto.
Each of them had a commanding 47 percent of voter preference, according to the latest preelection survey released by Arkipelago Analytics.
The poll, conducted from Feb. 26 to March 6, had Duterte, Tulfo and Sotto in a statistical tie — setting the stage for what could become one of the most fiercely contested senatorial races in recent memory.
The survey, which sampled 2,637 registered voters nationwide through face-to-face interviews, carries a margin of error of ±2 percent at a 96-percent confidence level.
Duterte, the son of former president Rodrigo Duterte, could run under the Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP) banner. He shared the top spot with broadcaster-turned-senator Raffy Tulfo, an independent, and Sotto, who is also without a party affiliation.
Right behind the lead pack, a second tier of candidates posted 42 percent each: Sen. Robinhood Padilla, Sen. Loren Legarda (NPC) and former vice president Leni Robredo (LP).
A third cluster followed closely with 39 percent: Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano (NP), Davao City Rep. Paolo “Pulong” Duterte (HNP) and Sen. Francis Escudero (NPC).
The survey showed a fragmented field where name recall, regional strongholds and broadcast presence continue to shape voter preferences.
Further down the list, a broad middle tier includes Sen. Mark Villar (NP), Sen. JV Ejercito, retired Commission on Elections (Comelec) commissioner Rowena Guanzon (IND), Education Secretary Sonny Angara, Makati City Mayor Nancy Binay and former senator Grace Poe (NPC) — all at 34 percent.
Boxing icon Manny Pacquiao (PFP), Sen. Jinggoy Estrada and popular television host Vice Ganda (IND) followed with 28 percent, while broadcaster Ben “Bitag” Tulfo (IND) and actor Dingdong Dantes (IND) had 25 percent.
The survey also tracked candidates at the lower end of the preference spectrum. Former senator Antonio Trillanes IV (LP), former presidential spokesman Vic Rodriguez and former party-list representative Teddy Casiño (MKBYN) each garnered 7 percent.
At the bottom were former Alliance of Concerned Teachers representative France Castro (MKBYN), Akbayan Party-list Rep. Chel Diokno, labor leader Ka Leody De Guzman, Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro, former Gabriela Party-list representative Liza Maza and pastor Apollo Quiboloy — each with 5 percent.
Arkipelago Analytics said the survey’s sample was weighted to align with the Commission on Elections’ voter registration data, which lists 68.6 million voters. Regional weights were set at 11 percent for Metro Manila, 45 percent for Luzon outside the capital, 20 percent for the Visayas and 24 percent for Mindanao.
The gender distribution mirrored Comelec figures at 51 percent female and 49 percent male. Socioeconomically, respondents were classified as 7 percent from Classes ABC, 75 percent from Class D and 18 percent from Class E, following standard Philippine consumer segmentation.
