Solo Melaka bid could show whether BN’s comeback is real
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional (BN) could go into the Melaka election alone to test whether its political comeback is real, but doing so could leave it paying a higher political price if it later needs Perikatan Nasional (PN) to form the state government, analysts said.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said BN could still secure a majority on its own, but should not expect to match its 21-seat haul from the 2021 state election.
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“I think it is a mistake for BN to see Melaka the same way as the Johor election (in which BN won majority seats),” she said.
“Taking everything together, I would say going solo, BN could still win a majority but not as prominent as the last state election.”
The calculation comes as BN and PN, despite increasingly close ties between Umno and PAS, have yet to formalise an electoral pact for the Melaka polls.
For BN, going solo would allow it to test whether its electoral recovery since the 2022 general election is strong enough to stand without PN. BN won 21 of Melaka’s 28 seats in the 2021 state election but failed to win a single parliamentary seat in the state in the 2022 general election.
Syaza added that a solo contest could give BN an opportunity to demonstrate to PN that its fortunes have genuinely recovered. But if BN and PN eventually decide to work together, the question of who gives way could prove harder to settle than whether they should cooperate.
Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Datuk Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said BN could contest the election alone without closing the door to PN after polling day.
“Contesting alone and cooperating after the results are known are two different matters.
“In an increasingly fluid political system, parties could compete during an election while still leaving room for negotiations afterwards if no side secures enough seats to form a government,” he stressed.
BN has maintained that the 21 seats it won in 2021 should form its baseline in any negotiations, while PAS had previously identified 16 seats it wanted to contest before the two sides began discussing an informal pact, with several overlapping with BN-held constituencies.
Awang Azman said both sides have political grounds for defending their claims.
“BN can point to its sweeping victory in the last state election while PAS and PN can point to their performance at parliamentary level and subsequent political developments,” he said.
“The real question is not simply whether BN and PN want to cooperate, but also who is willing to make way, in which seats, and based on what measure of strength.”
Syaza emphasised that BN would have to consider the wider implications of any seat-sharing deal, particularly if it expects PN to make concessions in states where the opposition bloc is stronger.
“If BN and PN work together, BN would have to give up some seats if it expects to gain seats in PN-held states.
“If BN is adamant about keeping all 21 seats and only giving seven to PN, why would PN give anything to BN in Terengganu?” she said, referring to calls within BN for any cooperation with PN to be based on mutual concessions, including possible seat arrangements beyond Melaka.
The unresolved seat equation means the close political ties between BN and PAS have yet to translate into a formal electoral pact in Melaka, leaving BN to decide whether to test its own strength first or negotiate with PN before voters go to the polls.
The Melaka Legislative Assembly was dissolved yesterday, with the Election Commission yet to announce a polling date.
