Plan allows party to keep options open for wider strategies to use in GE16: Academic
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) delay in choosing an ally for the Melaka election could be a calculated move to secure the upper hand in negotiations over a wider political pact ahead of GE16, rather than a mere scheduling issue.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the delay allows BN to keep its options open as it weighs three possibilities – working with Perikatan Nasional (PN), working with Pakatan Harapan (PH) or contesting the polls alone.
READ MORE: Melaka polls: BN to finalise political cooperation and logo this week, says Zahid
“Well, it’s not a scheduling issue. I think it’s more concerned with strategic issues. I think this is part of the Barisan strategy in this case.”
He added that the calculation is significant given BN’s commanding position in the previous Melaka assembly, in which it won 21 of 28 seats and secured a two-thirds majority in the 2021 state election.
Azmi said the 21-seat tally could obscure vulnerabilities within BN’s position, with several constituencies won by only a few hundred votes.
“So in this case, the 21 seats that they won four years ago, I would say, camouflage the real situation in Melaka right now.”
He added that the situation helps explain why BN is still looking for a partner despite its sizable majority.
However, he also said the strategy extends beyond Melaka, with the state election potentially providing a template for a broader arrangement ahead of GE16.
“In this case, I think why they are looking for a partner is not for Melaka only but basically for the general election and using Melaka as the basis to set up the agreement, whomever they’ll be working with.”
Azmi said the prospect of BN-PN cooperation gained momentum after the two coalitions won 25 of Negeri Sembilan’s 36 seats in the Aug 1 state election.
BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi subsequently spoke of carrying the cooperation into Melaka, while support for closer ties with PAS was also evident at the recent Umno general assembly, which was attended by PAS leaders.
However, the proposed arrangement has since become less straightforward, with uncertainty surrounding PN and separate manoeuvering involving PAS and Bersatu.
Zahid had said BN would discuss its options with several parties before bringing the outcome to the Umno leadership and BN supreme council.
Meanwhile, Melaka BN chief Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh yesterday said talks initially expected this week had been postponed to a later date, with BN remaining open to potential partners.
He added that BN had no preferred ally and would assess any cooperation based on whether it brought more benefits to the coalition.
Azmi said BN was therefore seeking a coalition on terms that would protect and strengthen the position of Umno.
“I think they want to find a partner. They want to form a coalition, but a coalition that is advantageous to Barisan, to Umno.
“And I think Melaka is a good stepping stone to set the condition of this particular coalition.”
He views PN as the most likely direction for BN, saying previous cooperation between the two blocs had benefited Umno.
“Most probably, they’ll be working with PN because it has been proven that working with them gave an advantage to Umno.”
He added that the delay itself could strengthen BN’s negotiating position by allowing it to decide which partner offers the most favourable terms.
“I think the delay is basically to show that Umno-BN is holding the upper hand in terms of discussion, who will they pick and choose during the Melaka election.”
With the state assembly dissolved on Sept 23, the Election Commission will hold a special meeting on Oct 7 to decide key dates for the Melaka polls.
BN therefore has limited time to turn its calculations into an electoral pact, with Melaka potentially serving as a test of the political alignment it may carry into GE16.
