Melaka showdown puts BN-PH ‘marriage of convenience’ to test
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) may still be sharing power in Putrajaya but the Melaka election could expose just how far the two blocs have drifted apart with BN increasingly looking towards Perikatan Nasional (PN) and PH exploring new alliances of its own.
The state election could force the former partners into a direct fight for votes while still relying on one another to keep the federal government running, creating a political contradiction that could become harder to manage as GE16 approaches.
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International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said a return to a BN-PH arrangement in Melaka appeared increasingly unlikely, particularly because of resistance within BN’s grassroots.
“I think it is unrealistic for BN to go back to PH just because of how unpopular that has been with the grassroots.”
Syaza said BN was now more likely to look towards PN if it emerged as the strongest bloc after the election.
“But of course in politics anything can happen since it seems in Melaka there seems to be reluctance for BN to work with PN.”
The comments come as PH works on its proposed “PH Plus” arrangement with Bersatu, which is among the parties involved in discussions, while BN has yet to strike a formal electoral arrangement with either bloc.
Melaka PH chairman Datuk Seri Adly Zahari said recently that there had been no negotiations with BN and that PH was still finalising the PH Plus concept.
The uncertainty means the two federal partners could be heading for a direct contest in Melaka despite continuing to govern together in Putrajaya.
For PH, the emergence of Bersama adds another variable to the contest. The party has announced 15 candidates, including in urban and mixed constituencies and could potentially draw support from voters dissatisfied with the established political blocs.
Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Bersama should not be dismissed simply because it is a new entrant.
Its impact, however, would depend on whether it could concentrate its support in a handful of constituencies or spread it too thinly across the state.
“If Bersama succeeds in attracting voters who do not want to support BN, PH or PN and concentrates that support in several constituencies, it could have a direct impact on the outcome.”
Awang Azman said Bersama’s failure to win a seat in the recent Johor election should not automatically be taken as a guide to its prospects in Melaka, as voter demographics, candidates and local contests were different.
He also said public perception on the pardon for former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak, dissatisfaction with existing parties and questions over trust in the government could create space for an alternative-party narrative.
“But the extent to which those sentiments translate into votes for Bersama can only be assessed through the campaign and the actual results,” he said, adding that the bigger test for BN and PH, however, could come after polling day.
Awang Azman said the two blocs could remain federal partners even while competing against each other in Melaka but the way they conduct the campaign could determine how difficult that becomes.
“The Melaka election will therefore test the concept of ‘competitive cooperation’, where parties can be partners at one level of government while remaining opponents at another.”
He said renewed cooperation after the election would become harder to explain if the campaign turned particularly hostile.
“Federal cooperation could continue if both sides clearly distinguish state-level politics from the stability of the federal government. But the sharper the attacks during the campaign, the greater the political cost of explaining renewed cooperation afterwards.”
With the Melaka legislative assembly dissolved, BN and PH now face a test of whether their federal partnership can withstand a direct fight for state power.
