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BARISAN Nasional (BN) is expected to hold the upper hand in the Ayer Kuning state by-election, with analysts citing the coalition’s longstanding presence in the constituency, a united campaign with Pakatan Harapan (PH), and government policy initiatives that resonate with voters.
Campaigning began in earnest following the nomination process, with the three candidates immediately hitting the ground to meet constituents. BN’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, 54, and Perikatan Nasional (PN)’s Abd Muhaimin Malek, 44, kept up a packed schedule on their first day, engaging with party members and residents late into the night.
Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM)’s Bawani KS, 40, meanwhile, opted for a walkabout and online engagements between 7pm and 9pm.
Dr Siti Noranizahhafizah Boyman, a political analyst from Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris (UPSI), said while all three candidates bring notable credentials to the race, BN’s local roots and electoral record place it in a favourable position.
“They possess strong educational and professional backgrounds and are locals, but BN is seen as having an advantage in retaining the seat, which it has held for nine terms since 1986,” she told Bernama.
She also pointed to the significance of the BN-PH cooperation, saying, “The collaboration between the BN and Pakatan Harapan machinery provides BN an edge in the battle for votes.”
In the last general election, BN’s Ishsam Shahruddin secured the seat with 9,088 votes and a 2,213 majority over PH’s Dr Mohd Nazri Hashim, who garnered 6,875 votes. PN’s Muhammad Noor Farid Zainal followed closely with 6,812 votes, while PSM’s Bawani received 586 votes and Pejuang’s Maziah Salim 105.
Despite this advantage, Dr Siti warned against complacency.
“Based on voter perception surveys, the temple issue has caused some unease among voters, and BN must be wise in handling this matter,” she said, noting that local sensitivities could influence voter sentiment.
Dr Kamaruddin Yaakob, a senior lecturer at Universiti Sultan Azlan Shah (USAS), believes the MADANI Government’s initiatives, particularly civil service pay rises, could strengthen BN’s appeal among public sector workers.
“Policies that support civil servants’ welfare are expected to enhance support among public sector employees,” he said.
He also noted that PN and PAS’s emphasis on 3R (race, religion, royalty) narratives and criticisms of UMNO’s alliance with DAP are likely to energise their core base but may do little to win over the undecided.
“These factors may cause young and undecided voters to lean towards BN. In conclusion, BN is expected to retain the seat with over 10,000 votes, depending on voter turnout,” he added.
The Ayer Kuning seat, left vacant after the sudden passing of BN assemblyman Ishsam Shahruddin on 22 February, has 31,897 registered voters — 31,315 of them ordinary electors, with the remainder comprising police personnel and their spouses.
Of the total electorate, 45.9 per cent are aged between 18 and 39, making youth turnout a key factor in the final result.
Polling day is set for 26 April, with early voting scheduled for 22 April. – April 13, 2025