BNM seen holding OPR at 2.75%, but rate hike looms ahead: Juwai IQI

KUALA LUMPUR — Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to keep the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75 per cent during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday, but may have to raise rates later this year, according to Juwai IQI co-founder and group chief executive officer Kashif Ansari.

“What's most notable this time is that the MPC actually has to consider evidence that it might have to raise rates later in the year since BNM hasn't raised it since March 2023,” he said in a statement today.

Kashif pointed to the advance first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 5.3 per cent as proof that Malaysia’s economy remains resilient despite global uncertainties.

“Inflation is also up along with growth, although still moderate. BNM also raised its forecast, saying that inflation could reach 2.5 per cent in 2026.

In short, there is a case for predicting one rate increase later in the year, but that will depend on how the economy and inflation perform between now and then,” he said.

External risks

Kashif cautioned that external factors could disrupt BNM’s policy trajectory.

“High oil prices would likely push up inflation. New tariffs from United States President Trump could also hit Malaysia's exports. These unpredictable future events won't change the MPC’s decision at their meeting on May 7,” he noted.

Property market impact

On the property sector, Kashif said the current interest rate environment supports stable lending rates, keeping mortgage payments predictable for homeowners and offering clarity for new buyers.

“The current interest rate environment has been good for residential property. The most popular homes are those priced between RM300,000 and RM600,000 in suburban Kuala Lumpur, Penang mainland, and Johor.

Johor continues to deserve special attention. House prices there rose 6.9 per cent last year, more than in any other state, and the cross-border and infrastructure investment suggests that demand there will keep growing,” he said. - May 5, 2026

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