Anti-Brexit campaigners have hailed three new mega polls which reveal the next election will provide an historic opportunity for Britain to rejoin the EU.
A YouGov MRP poll, which predicts how constituencies would vote, suggested that the two pro-Brexit parties the Tories and Reform UK would be left stranded on a combined 253 seats while Labour would be the biggest party with 241.
Labour would need coalition allies with the pro-EU Lib Dems projected at 71 seats and Greens on 9 seats enough to get them over the line.
With Andy Burnham refusing to rule out putting Rejoin in the next election manifesto for Labour and former prime minister Sir Tony Blair saying he needs a plan to return in a decade, momentum appears to be building for a Brexit election whenever it is called.
A Survation MRP poll offered a similar outcome with Labour on 272 and Lib Dems on 69 while the pro-Brexit Tories were down to 85 and Reform on 153.
A 38 Degrees MRP poll based on tactical voting had Labour on 266 while the Tories had just 79 and reform 62.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said: “‘You'd have the SNP and Plaid there as well who would be willing to back a Brexit policy. So the opportunity [to reverse Brexit] would be there.
“Could it push a rethink on Brexit policy? I think we are beginning to anticipate that the Labour Party will be saying something different in its next manifesto, but we're not quite sure exactly what he's going to say.”
Another leading polling expert Lord Robert Hayward added: “If there was an election immediately then certainly the most likely outcome is an anti-Brexit coalition. But things are so fluid at the moment it could be completely different again in a few months.”
However, campaigners believe that there is an historic opportunity.
Last week The Independent revealed that only four constituencies in England, Wales and Scotland did not oppose reversing Brexit from polling commissioned from YouGov by Best for Britain.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, which campaigns for the UK to restore its EU membership, said: “YouGov’s data finds Reform UK is increasingly vulnerable to tactical voting - an anti-Brexit alliance by another name - but our own landmark mega poll of some 13,400 voters’ preferred EU policy position, conducted via their MRP methodology, takes it even further.
“It should be a deafening alarm bell to every Labour MP and strategist that a manifesto commitment to rejoining the EU is the route to securing a Labour-led government at the next general election, and avoiding a Farage-led one.”
A major debate in the Commons is set to take place on 12 October from a petition supporting rejoining the EU being pushed by the European Movement UK. So far 23,000 letters have been sent to MPs.
Mike Galsworthy, chair of the European Movement UK, said: "It's looking increasingly likely that we could end up with a coalition government at the next election. The big question would be - what keeps that coalition together for an entire parliament?
“The obvious point of cohesion is that Labour, Lib Dems and Greens could all offer the double promise of rejoining the EU and bringing in proportional representation."
In further bad news for Nigel Farage, who built his political career on Brexit, his party Reform UK would fall behind both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today.
YouGov’s first large-scale seat poll in a year predicted the party would secure just 123 seats as they slide down from top spot to third place.
It marks a stark difference from last year’s polling, which suggested Reform UK would form the largest party in parliament, followed by Labour and the Conservatives.
In good news for Mr Burnham, Labour would secure 241 seats if a general election was held today. The Tories would remain in second place with 130 seats.
The 2025 data predicted Reform would secure 311 seats, beating Labour on 144 seats and the Tories with just 45 seats.
In more bad news for Reform UK, the poll predicts Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their seats to their old party.
Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, told The Times there “just simply isn’t” a way for Reform and the Tories to form a coalition to build a majority.
“YouGov’s latest projections put Labour clearly ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives in terms of seats, while being only a fraction ahead of each on vote share,” he said.
But Alan Lockey, who until earlier this year was Keir Starmer’s speechwriter, warned on X, formerly Twitter: “I cannot stress how much the Labour Party has emotionally and pyscholgically committed to the prospect of facing Reform at the next (general election). “
Pointing to a graph of the poll, showing Reform in third place, he added: “They’re (Labour) not ready for the Tories and, well... “
Former President of YouGov Peter Kellner said the findings were “very, very bad news for Nigel Farage”.
"Not only is (Reform's) vote down ... but the determination of non-Reform voters to make sure that Reform doesn't win in their seat - that determination is high and growing. And this is very, very bad news for Nigel Farage," he told Times Radio.
Deputy Reform leader Richard Tice insisted his party was “ready” for an election, after it received £72m in donations earlier this month.
“Who knows when the election will be, whether it's early part of next year, or whether it goes long through until 29,” he told Times Radio. “We'll be ready. The good news is we've raised the money. So now we're cracking on with selecting candidates and we're getting ready. And in the Labour heartlands, there is no love for a government and a Labour party. that, frankly, is taking the country towards ruin.”
The latest polling has returned the lowest share YouGov has recorded for Reform UK since the pollster restarted its voting intention tracker in January 2025. It comes just days after Mr Farage‘s individual popularity reached a record low.
Mr Farage now has a net favourability rating of -45, identical to Sir Keir Starmer’s score just before his resignation as prime minister. This is down from a rating of -31 this time last year, with Britons now nearly three times as likely to see him negatively than positively
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