THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in a statement late Tuesday sees the country’s balance of payments (BOP) remaining under pressure till 2027 due to heightened global risks, soaring oil prices and structural constraints.
Revised projections set the expected 2026 BOP deficit at $7.8 billion, up from the $5.9-billion outlook three months earlier. The forecast for next year is $8.5 billion.
The country’s BOP position in 2025 ended in a $5.7-billion deficit, a reversal from 2024’s $609-million surplus.
“Global growth remains below pre-pandemic trends, while world trade momentum is expected to weaken as tariff-related front-loading unwinds,” the BSP said. “At the same time, elevated geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, adds downside risks mainly through higher energy prices and episodic risk-off sentiment.”
The BOP is the record of an economy’s transactions with the rest of the world. It consists of the current account, which covers trade in goods, services, and primary and secondary income (including overseas Filipino worker remittances); the capital account (capital transfers and nonfinancial assets) and the financial account, which consists of investments from abroad.
The current account deficit is expected to widen at $20.3 billion instead of $15.5 billion, and $21.9 billion next year.
Broken down, merchandise exports are expected to earn $65.3 billion instead of $61.2 billion, and the outlook for goods imports is also higher at $137.9 billion from $130.2 billion. For 2027, both are expected to expand to $67.9 billion and $144.8 billion, respectively.
“Goods exports are projected to grow more moderately... reflecting inventory normalization, weaker global trade momentum and higher trade costs,” the BSP said. “The sector will nevertheless benefit from growth in some segments.”
The forecast for services exports was trimmed to $53.6 billion from $54.7 billion, while that of imports was also cut to $40.2 billion from $42.3 billion. For next year, both are seen to climb to $55.7 billion and $42.6 billion, respectively.
Travel receipts, which are under services exports, are expected to be a lower $8.8 billion instead of $9.4 billion, while the outsourcing revenue outlook was also trimmed at $34.8 billion.
For 2027, it is set at $9.0 billion while the outlook for outsourcing is at $36.2 billion.
The outlook for remittances this year and in 2027, meanwhile, is seen to grow to $36.7 billion and $37.8 billion, respectively.
“Cash remittances remain a key source of external stability,” the BSP said. “They are projected to grow by about 3.0 percent over the next two years, despite geopolitical tensions, as there remain no signs of mass repatriation or widespread deployment bans.”
As for the financial account, the 2026 projection is an outflow of $12.9 billion, up from $11.7 billion three months earlier. It is expected to hit $13.8 billion next year.
Net foreign direct investment forecasts for this year, and the next are unchanged at $7.5 billion, while net foreign portfolio investments are seen hitting $3.7 billion, down from $5.6 billion. The 2027 outlook for both are set at $8.0 billion and $4.1 billion, respectively.
Lastly, gross international reserves are forecast to end 2026 at a higher $111 billion instead of $110 billion, and rise to $112 billion next year.
“Overall, the outlook points to an orderly but gradual adjustment, with uncertainty and sentiment pressures transmitted mainly through uptick in prices rather than sharp volume contraction,” the BSP said.
“External sustainability hinges on stable financing, resilient non-trade inflows and adequate foreign exchange buffers. The country’s gross international reserves remain sufficient in providing cushion against external shocks over the forecast horizon,” it noted.