Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget in 15 years later this month, leading one of the most highly-anticipated fiscal events in over a decade.
As the chancellor looks to fill the £22bn “black hole” in public spending she announced in late July, speculation has mounted about what measures will be included on 30 October.
Ahead of the event, Ms Reeves is reportedly opting to let current stamp duty exemptions expire by March, ending a tax discount introduced by Liz Truss in 2022. Property market experts have said the measure is likely to severely slow down the housing market.
The chancellor will also honour the £3bn savings in welfare target made by the previous government, with these savings already factored into spending plans according to an OBR report.
During Labour’s first few months in power, ministers have warned that “tough decisions” will be required to balance the books. Sir Keir Starmer has said the event is going to be “painful” but that there is “no other choice given the situation that we’re in.”
This likely means tax rises and spending cuts can be expected, with Reeves reportedly looking to raise £40bn. The government has already come under fire for its decision to cut back winter fuel payments for millions of pensions, sparking a row which has hung over its first 100 days in power.
Both Starmer and Reeves have been accused of potentially breaking the promises contained in the Labour manifesto should such announcements be made.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.
Key points
- Ministers plead with PM to soften Reeves’ spending cuts
- Inflation falls below 2% target for first time in three years
- Proposed national insurance hike sparks row
- Preview: What will be in Labour’s Budget?
Workers set for income tax hike as Rachel Reeves ‘to extend freeze on thresholds’
22:11
Tom Watling
ICYMI: How make-or-break Budget has fractured Keir Starmer’s cabinet
20:05
Archie Mitchell
Rachel Reeves’ Budget is a make-or-break moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s government, potentially sparking a decade of national renewal – or sowing the seeds of Labour’s downfall.
The prime minister’s poll ratings are at rock bottom after just over 100 days in charge, and the much-hyped “tough choices” to be unveiled on October 30 will likely do little to help boost his appeal.
Keir Starmer’s cabinet is rebelling – what took them so long?
19:00
John Rentoul
Led by Angela Rayner, several cabinet ministers have broken ranks on the chancellor’s demand for swingeing budget cuts – and the only winner from this early breakdown of party discipline will be the prime minister, says John Rentoul
Keir Starmer’s warning to ministers after cabinet Budget row erupts
18:00
Albert Toth
Sir Keir Starmer has warned his senior ministers they will have to live with swingeing spending cuts after a cabinet row over the Budget erupted in public.
The prime minister is facing a backlash from Angela Rayner and other members of his top team over cuts to government departments set to be unveiled by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Inheritance tax to rise in Budget as Reeves plans to hit well-off
17:05
Millie Cooke
The Treasury is reportedly considering plans to raise Inheritance Tax at the Budget, as part of an attempt to raise £40bn and plug a hole in the public finances.According to the BBC, the chancellor is considering multiple changes to the tax, which is charged at 40 per cent on the property, possessions and money of somebody who has died above a £325,000 threshold.
Budget 2024: Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
16:00
Salma Ouaguira
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly planning changes to inheritance tax at the Budget as she looks to raise up to £40bn from tax hikes and spending cuts.
While specifics remain unclear, any changes could significantly affect how much families pay on inherited properties and their financial futures.
Stamp duty threshold to drop as Reeves denies extension
15:16
Albert Toth
The chancellor is reportedly planning to confirm that the heightened stamp duty threshold will drop back to previous levels in March, costing housebuyers up to £2,500 more.
In 2022, the Conservatives under Liz Truss increased the ‘nil rate’ threshold – when stamp duty starts being paid – from £125,000 to £250,000. For first-time buyers, it rose from £300,000 to £425,000.
The approach is expected to raise £1.8 billion a year by 2029-30, but experts have warned the news will cause “chaos” in the property market as buyers rush deals to save money.
Property expert Kirstie Allsopp told Times Radio: “It’s become so complicated that I can no longer tell anyone what they would be paying in stamp duty.”
“It won’t claw back any money. Stamp duty is a dead tax.”
Reeves warned inheritance tax hike would punish middle classes as Budget backlash intensifies
14:30
Albert Toth
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been warned that her plan to hike inheritance tax risks punishing middle-class homeowners as the backlash against her Budget intensified.
Ms Reeves is considering an increase on the “death tax”, which raises about £7bn for the Treasury each year, despite the fact it is routinely found to be one of voters’ least favourite measures.
How DWP rules for disability benefit assessment could change as Reeves’ Budget approaches
13:39
Albert Toth
Changes to disability benefit assessments are set to come into force soon as Rachel Reeves reportedly pushes ahead with plans to shave £3 billion from the welfare bill ahead of Labour’s upcoming Budget.
Read all about the proposed plans here:
Inheritance tax to rise in Budget as Reeves plans to hit well-off
11:30
Albert Toth
The Treasury is reportedly considering plans to raise Inheritance Tax at the Budget, as part of an attempt to raise £40bn and plug a hole in the public finances.
According to the BBC, the chancellor is considering multiple changes to the tax, which is charged at 40 per cent on the property, possessions and money of somebody who has died above a £325,000 threshold.
Independent readers name their priorities for Labour Budget
10:30
Albert Toth
With a new Labour government in power and the first autumn statement on the horizon, we wanted to hear your economic priorities.
When we asked what you thought should be included in the budget, responses from Independent readers varied widely.
Here’s a closer look:
Reeves considers raising tax on vaping in Budget
09:28
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves is considering raising the tax on vaping products in the upcoming Budget as figures lay bare how many children access them in the UK, The Guardian reports.
The tax on vaping products was originally announced by the Conservatives in March, to come in to force in 2026. It is now understood that Ms Reeves could look to increase this.
Under current plans, the new rates from April 2026 will range from £1-3 per 10ml of liquid, depending on nicotine level.
Reeves’ capital gains tax plans will sidestep homeowners, reports say
09:07
Albert Toth
Experts have long anticipated that Labour will put capital gains tax up in the Budget on 30 October. This is the levy is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. This includes houses, assets and shares, all paid between 20 and 28 per cent.
The latest reports indicate that Ms Reeves will respond to calls to raise capital gains tax in line with income tax bands – meaning rates of 20 to 40 per cent – but will exempt property from the new rates.
Rachel Reeves to push forward with £3bn sickness benefits cut in Budget
08:57
Millie Cooke
Rachel Reeves is understood to be considering about £3bn of cuts to the welfare bill over the next four years by restricting access to sickness benefits, as the chancellor embarks on a brutal cost-cutting mission to fill a so-called £22 billion black hole left by the Tories.
The chancellor is expected to save the £3bn sum by committing to the previous government’s plans to reform work capability rules.
Independent readers name their priorities for Rachel Reeves’ looming Labour budget
15:59
Albert Toth
When we asked what you thought should be included in the budget, responses from Independent readers varied widely.
Many called for a fairer tax system and more direct contributions for public services, while others petitioned for fewer regulations and ‘red tape’ to improve productivity.
Read more:
ICYMI: Angela Rayner leads Cabinet revolt against Reeves’ ‘huge’ Budget cuts
07:00
Archie Mitchell
Sir Keir Starmer is facing a backlash from Angela Rayner and his cabinet over “huge” cuts to departmental spending to be unveiled in Rachel Reeves’ Budget.
The prime minister has received letters from senior ministers raising concerns about the spending cuts after a number spoke out against the measures at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.
Budget rumours: Capital Gains reform
04:00
Albert Toth
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assets.
It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.
There are several ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems and Greens both said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.
Analysis: How make-or-break Budget has fractured Keir Starmer’s cabinet
01:00
Archie Mitchell
Rachel Reeves’ Budget is a make-or-break moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s government, potentially sparking a decade of national renewal – or sowing the seeds of Labour’s downfall.
The prime minister’s poll ratings are at rock bottom after just over 100 days in charge, and the much-hyped “tough choices” to be unveiled on October 30 will likely do little to help boost his appeal.
ICYMI: Millionaires urge Reeves to raise £14bn from capital gains tax changes at Budget
Thursday 17 October 2024 22:00
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves should increase capital gains tax (CGT) at Labour’s upcoming Budget, a group of millionaire business owners have urged, estimating the measure would raise £14bn a year.
In a report by the IPPR think-tank, analysts have consulted with wealthy entrepreneurs who say higher CGT would not have stopped them from making investments in the UK.
Budget rumours: Private equity profits
Thursday 17 October 2024 19:00
Albert Toth
In another manifesto pledge, Labour said it will announce more details on plans to close the private equity tax loophole in the October Budget.
Due to the ‘carried interest’ law, private equity fund managers pay only 28 per cent tax on their income, which is treated as capital gains. This was the result of a successful lobbying campaign in 1987.
Labour has vowed to change this, making managers pay the 45 per cent higher rate of income tax. It is estimated the change will raise around £600 million a year with just a few thousand people affected.
Budget rumours: Employer National Insurance Contributions
Thursday 17 October 2024 16:00
Albert Toth
National insurance contributions (NICs) are the UK’s second-largest tax after income tax. They are paid by both employees on their own earnings, and employers on the earnings of their employees.
Labour officials say they will uphold the manifesto pledge to not raise NICs for employees above the recently lowered rate of 8 per cent. However, speculation has mounted that this could leave the door open for an increase in the rate paid by employers, with both the chancellor and prime minister refusing to rule out the measure.
Employer NICs are currently paid at a flat rate of 13.8 per cent. Experts say an increase of just 1p could raise £8.5bn in 2025/26 and more for the following years.
How make-or-break Budget has fractured Keir Starmer’s cabinet
Thursday 17 October 2024 13:20
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves’ Budget is a make-or-break moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s government, potentially sparking a decade of national renewal – or sowing the seeds of Labour’s downfall.
The prime minister’s poll ratings are at rock bottom after just over 100 days in charge, and the much-hyped “tough choices” to be unveiled on October 30 will likely do little to help boost his appeal.
Millionaires urge Reeves to raise £14bn from capital gains tax changes at Budget
Thursday 17 October 2024 11:25
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves should increase capital gains tax (CGT) at Labour’s upcoming Budget, a group of millionaire business owners have urged, estimating the measure would raise £14bn a year.
In a report by the IPPR think-tank, analysts have consulted with wealthy entrepreneurs who say higher CGT would not have stopped them from making investments in the UK.
Angela Rayner leads Cabinet revolt against Reeves’ ‘huge’ Budget cuts
Thursday 17 October 2024 10:14
Archie Mitchell
Sir Keir Starmer is facing a backlash from Angela Rayner and his cabinet over “huge” cuts to departmental spending to be unveiled in Rachel Reeves’ Budget.
The prime minister has received letters from senior ministers raising concerns about the spending cuts after a number spoke out against the measures at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.
Ministers plead with PM to soften Reeves’ spending cuts
Thursday 17 October 2024 09:22
Albert Toth
Several ministers have reportedly written to Number 10 urging the prime minister to soften departmental spending cuts laid out in the upcoming Budget.
The requests have gone over the head of Rachel Reeves, who is reportedly looking to find around £40bn in tax rises and spending cuts on 30 October.
It is an embarrassing show of disunity for the prime minister, indicating that ministers and Ms Reeves may not be seeing eye-to-eye on departmental budgets.
It’s understood that the complaints have come from the Ministry of Housing, Department for Transport, Ministry of Justice. Unlike health and education, these departments have ‘unprotected’ budgets, meaning they could see severe cuts.
One Cabinet minister told Sky News: “The briefing doesn’t match the reality. It’s pain this year, and pain next year. We’re simply going to be digging a hole which we end up filling in later in the year.”
Budget rumours: business rates reform
Thursday 17 October 2024 03:00
Albert Toth
In its election manifesto, Labour said it was committed to reforming the current business rates system “so we can raise the same revenue but in a fairer way”.
What this means has not been spelt out by the party, but it said the new system will be designed to “level the playing field between the high street and online giants, better incentivise investment, tackle empty properties and support entrepreneurship”.
It’s thought this could take the form of an immediate cut to the rates, while also closing loopholes which allow some firms to avoid tax. This will come as welcome news to smaller business owners, but Labour will be careful to ensure their reform maintains a monetary net zero.
Exchequer secretary James Murray MP confirmed this at a Labour conference fringe event hosted by the British Retail Consortium, saying: “It’s within the current envelope. It’s all about raising the same amount of money overall, that’s the commitment.”
ICYMI: Inflation drop ‘badly-timed’ for benefit claimants as next increase revealed
Thursday 17 October 2024 00:01
Albert Toth
Inflation has dropped below 2 per cent for the first time in over three years, raising hopes that the Bank will cut interest rates in November. The decrease exceeded many economist predictions, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to 1.7 per cent
But some experts have warned that the rate drop is “badly timed” for many people, as it will be a key factor in how much benefits are uprated by the DWP next April.
Budget rumours: fuel Duty increase
Wednesday 16 October 2024 21:00
Albert Toth
Fuel duties, or taxes, apply to purchases of petrol, diesel and a variety of other fuels used both for vehicles and domestic heating.
The level of fuel duty depends on the type of fuel used, with a litre of petrol, diesel, biodiesel and bioethanol attracting a fuel duty of 52.95p. It was cut by 5p by the Conservatives in 2022, after being frozen at 57.95p since 2011.
It represents a significant source of revenue for the government, expected to raise £24.7 billion in 2023-24, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility – equivalent to 2.2 per cent of all receipts.
Scrapping the 5p cut would raise the government an estimated £2bn. However, doing so would not automatically force fuel retailers to bring down their costs, likely meaning higher fees for motorists, at least in the short term.
ICYMI: Rachel Reeves boosted by big drop in inflation as she seeks £40bn in Budget tax rises
Wednesday 16 October 2024 20:00
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves has been boosted by a sharp drop in inflation as she seeks to find £40bn of tax hikes and spending cuts in this month’s Budget.
The chancellor will welcome the dip, which saw inflation fall under the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for the first time in more than three years, as she prepares for what promises to be a brutal Budget.
Budget rumours: welfare spending cuts
Wednesday 16 October 2024 18:00
Albert Toth
Labour has made no secret of its ambition to reduce the government’s welfare spending bill, so Ms Reeves will likely take the Budget as her opportunity to do so.
Speaking at Labour’s party conference, the prime minister said: “We will get the welfare bill down because we will tackle long-term sickness and support people back to work.”
What has been confirmed is a crackdown on benefit fraud, which looks to save £1.6bn over the next five years. Also possible is the mooted reform to disability benefits through personal independence payments (PIP) or the work capability assessment (WCA).
What would you like to see announced in Rachel Reeves’ budget?
Wednesday 16 October 2024 17:00
Albert Toth
We would like to hear your thoughts on what you would like to see introduced in Reeves’ Budget. Should she focus on measures to support homeowners, such as the Freedom to Buy scheme? Or would you prefer a focus on closing tax loopholes, such as abolishing non-dom status, to ensure a fairer tax system?
Inflation drop ‘badly-timed’ for benefit claimants as next increase revealed
Wednesday 16 October 2024 15:33
Albert Toth
Inflation has dropped below 2 per cent for the first time in over three years, raising hopes that the Bank will cut interest rates in November. The decrease exceeded many economist predictions, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to 1.7 per cent
But some experts have warned that the rate drop is “badly timed” for many people, as it will be a key factor in how much benefits are uprated by the DWP next April.
ICYMI: Ex-Bank of England chief urges Rachel Reeves to raise national insurance
Wednesday 16 October 2024 13:14
Albert Toth
In an open letter published in The Independent, Mervyn King warns the chancellor against higher borrowing
“Be courageous, be bold, and ensure that the economic inheritance we leave to our grandchildren is one of which both they and we can be proud.
“One day, you will look back on your time as chancellor and you will want to remember the far-reaching changes you made – not the political compromises that others will urge on you.”
Controversial weight-loss jab policy revealed ahead of Budget
Wednesday 16 October 2024 11:53
Albert Toth
Ahead of the Budget on 30 October, it has been revealed that a trial is underway where unemployed people will be given weight-loss jabs to assist them back into work.
The UK’s life sciences sector will receive £279 million from drugs giant Eli Lilly, to invest in developing new medicines and ways to deliver treatment.
“The long-term benefits of these drugs could be monumental in our approach to tackling obesity. For many people, these jabs will be life-changing, help them get back to work and ease the demands on our NHS,” health secretary Wes Streeting wrote in The Telegraph.
Rachel Reeves boosted by big drop in inflation as she seeks £40bn in Budget tax rises
Wednesday 16 October 2024 10:03
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves has been boosted by a sharp drop in inflation as she seeks to find £40bn of tax hikes and spending cuts in this month’s Budget.
The chancellor will welcome the dip, which saw inflation fall under the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for the first time in more than three years, as she prepares for what promises to be a brutal Budget.
Would raising employer national insurance be a ‘tax on working people’?
Wednesday 16 October 2024 10:00
Albert Toth
Labour came under criticism in recent days after several ministers refused to rule out that an increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) will be announced in the upcoming budget.
Ministers and Treasury officials have indicated the government’s position is that the measure would not break their manifesto pledge. Meanwhile, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has argued it would be a “straightforward breach.”
Here are the facts about the debate and how the measure could affect you:
Inflation falls below 2% target for first time in three years
Wednesday 16 October 2024 08:02
Albert Toth
UK inflation has decreased to below the 2 per cent target for the first time in over three years.
The consumer price index (CPI) has dropped to 1.7 per cent, down from 2.2. per cent in August, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The figure has beaten expert predictions, which largely estimated a more modest drop to 1.9 per cent.
ICYMI: Reeves warned national insurance hike would be ‘straightforward breach’ of manifesto
Wednesday 16 October 2024 08:00
Albert Toth
Rachel Reeves has been warned that hiking employer national insurance contributions would be “a straightforward breach” of the Labour manifesto.
The chancellor has been told by Paul Johnson, director of the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), that the party said “very clearly” it would not make the change.
Budget rumours: Inheritance Tax reform
Wednesday 16 October 2024 06:00
Albert Toth
Inheritance tax is a levy on the estate of someone who has died. This is their property, money and possessions. Crucially, it is not paid if the value of these things is below £325,000.
The tax rate is 40 per cent, but it’s only charged on the part of the estate that’s above the threshold. In 2023/24, only 5 per cent of deaths generated an inheritance tax bill, raising around £7 billion.
However, the IFS writes that the tax measure “is littered with special exemptions”. These include a business relief, the ability to pass on agricultural land tax-free, and the tax-free passing on of pension pots.
The economic think tank says that ending these measures alone would raise £4.8bn a year by 2029.
Tell us what you’d like to see announced in Labour’s first budget
Wednesday 16 October 2024 03:00
The Independent
We would like to hear your thoughts on what you would like to see introduced in Reeves’ Budget. Should she focus on measures to support homeowners, such as the Freedom to Buy scheme? Or would you prefer a focus on closing tax loopholes, such as abolishing non-dom status, to ensure a fairer tax system?
Share your views:
Budget rumours: Taxing pension savings
Wednesday 16 October 2024 00:01
Albert Toth
Pension tax relief is a reduction of the amount of tax paid on private pensions. It helps workers save for retirement by boosting their pension pots.
The amount of tax relief a person is granted is based on their income tax. It will effectively cancel out tax on pension contributions up to a maximum of £60,000.
After this, contributions will be taxed at either 20, 40, or 45 per cent, depending on which income tax rate the worker falls into.
However, the chancellor is thought to be considering a flat 30 per cent pension tax relief rate. This would mean that higher earners would effectively pay 10 per cent in tax, while those on the additional rate would pay 15.
The measure would raise around £3 billion a year, with 7 million earners paying more tax. But it would be better news for basic rate earners, who would actually begin to receive a 10 per cent boost to their pension contributions.
Evaluating the idea last year, the IFS said it would “redistribute the burden of taxation from the bottom 80 per cent to the top 20 per cent of earners.”
Budget rumours: Capital Gains reform
Tuesday 15 October 2024 22:00
Albert Toth
It has been reported that Rachel Reeves is considering tweaking Capital Gains Tax at the 2024 Budget.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assets.
It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.
There are several ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems and Greens both said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.
Ex-Bank of England chief Mervyn King urges Rachel Reeves to raise national insurance in Budget
Tuesday 15 October 2024 20:00
David Maddox
Exclusive: Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King has made a dramatic intervention warning Rachel Reeves that she must raise national insurance in her Budget on 30 October.
The Independent’s political editor David Maddox reports:
Preview: What will be in Labour’s Budget?
Tuesday 15 October 2024 18:00
Albert Toth
Changes to capital gains, inheritance tax, pension savings and more – here’s your guide to what the Labour Budget on 30 October could have in store:
Analysis: Reeves will need lawyer's language to break national insurance pledge
Tuesday 15 October 2024 16:00
David Maddox
During the election Labour made a clear promise “not to raise taxes on working people”. This specifically included income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions.
The problem Rachel Reeves has as her first Budget approaches on 30 October is that somehow she has to pay for an estimated £25bn in spending commitments and encourage economic growth with little room for manoeuvre.
Her former Bank of England mentor Lord Mervyn King has warned her against extra borrowing even by rewriting the fiscals and suggested she raises national insurance instead to invest.
It is clear from the prime minister’s words this morning that national insurance rises on employer contributions is now a strong possibility. But does this mean a breach in the manifesto promises from just over 100 days ago?
The Tories say yes - they would - but so does the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson.
It appears that Labour are planning on using a lawyer’s way out - appropriate for the prime minister - to emphasise that their pledge was “for working people” not employers.
Budget 2024: Latest news as proposed national insurance hike sparks row
Tuesday 15 October 2024 14:00
Albert Toth
Hello and welcome to The Independent’s Budget 2024 live coverage where we’ll be bringing you the latest updates ahead of Labour’s fiscal event on 30 October.
Labour has been criticised in recent days for refusing to rule out an increase to employer national insurance contributions (NICs). Some experts say the measure would break their pledge to not raise taxes on working people – but officials have indicated that the government does not agree.
Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson said the measure would be a “straightforward breach” of the Labour manifesto, but added that Ms Reeves will “almost certainly” need to break a manifesto commitment to meet her spending targets.
He says that a 1p hike in employer NICs would “probably not” be very damaging to jobs.
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott said: “In 2021, the chancellor said increasing employer national insurance was a tax on ‘workers’. That’s why even in her own words it breaks Labour’s manifesto promise not to increase tax on working people.”
However, it has been pointed out that Ms Trott and her party had criticised Labour for not ruling out the measure in the run-up to the general election, implying they did not believe the manifesto had done so.
