PRESIDENTIAL polling after the UniTeam’s big win in the May 2022 elections and all subsequent polling after that team’s implosion have produced results that hardened to the point of inflexibility. It never strayed from one familiar result: a big win for Vice President Sara Duterte in the 2028 presidential race against all possible — and hopeless — competitors. The die is cast, so declared the calcified results of poll after poll. There is a president-in-waiting in the person of Sara, they say, and 2028 will be, in all certainty, her coronation year.
The lead of the Duterte princeling in surveys was so enormous that if a particular poll produced results that suggested a less-than-two-digit lead, that poll would be dismissed as either an outlier or a statistical fluke. The polls also showed this particular constant: that the combined voting base of the traditional opposition forces identified with the Aquinos — derisively dismissed by Duterte’s cheerleaders as either “dilawan” or “pinklawan” — plus the pro-Marcos base that turned hardline anti-Duterte and the proclaimed “independents,” were not enough to dent the insurmountable lead of Sara Duterte.
Her polling lead was not moved, not by a bit, by the overwhelming vote of members of the House of Representatives to impeach her in 2025, based on charges — from betrayal of the Constitution to corruption — that would have killed the ambition of any presidential aspirant not named Sara Duterte. A Supreme Court decision that prevented the Senate from proceeding with an impeachment trial after that 2025 impeachment complaint based on technicalities further strengthened her polling numbers. That high court decision also added an air of invincibility to Sara Duterte.
The public is fully aware of her strong polling numbers because surveys showing her voting appeal and popularity come with uncanny regularity. They have been, almost always, commissioned by some interested parties whenever Sara Duterte is being investigated in connection with official anomalies.
Apparently, to send the message that those allegations of corruption do not at all affect the massive appeal of the president-in-waiting. Lest we forget, these parties pay substantial sums for the commissioned surveys.
Was the outright refusal of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo to run for president anew after her loss to now-President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2022 partly an offshoot of the calcified polling results? We do not know. To many, myself included, Robredo is a once-in-a-generation leader who will be a great and caring president, the complete anti-thesis of Sara Duterte, now finally on trial by a Senate impeachment court after a second impeachment vote from the House, again for allegedly betraying the Constitution and threatening to kill Marcos.
A once-in-a-generation leader foregoing a presidential run and a chance to serve the country as president due to calcified polling results is definitely a national tragedy. So, those hoping that Robredo would change her mind and run anew for the sake of a country hungry for competent and honest leadership have harbored this hope: for the calcified polling to hit a brick wall, then shatter the aura of political invincibility built around Sara Duterte. Maybe that will push Robredo into reconsidering her decision not to embark on a second presidential run.
The good news is something along that hoped-for scenario, the calcified polling hitting a brick wall via a recent polling that says Duterte is no longer the runaway winner, may have come. An addition to that good news is that Robredo, whether she likes it or not, is part of that story. It is just one poll, but who knows? The political ground may have shifted.
That latest survey says if Robredo runs for president with Sen. Raffy Tulfo as her running mate, that hypothetical ticket will be in a statistical tie with a Sara Duterte-Sen. Imee Marcos ticket. The Robredo-Tulfo team will get 45 percent of the votes, with the Duterte-Marcos team getting 43 percent, the small difference falling within polling’s standard margin of error. The tie comes with a caveat: Robredo has to have Tulfo, a popular senator, as her running mate.
It is just one poll and maybe an outlier, a fluke. But it is an indicator that maybe, just maybe, there are other possibilities in 2028 that do necessarily involve the coronation of Sara Duterte as the new president.
A poll that shows that there are perspectives that defy the conventional wisdom that Sara Duterte’s 2028 presidential run will be a walk in the park.
Why does democracy need a diversity of perspectives, views, voices and interests to nurture democracy and make it stronger? Why does democracy need the so-called countervailing forces? Why does democracy need a “counterweight to the dominant vision”? The dominant vision being that whether the nation likes it or not, 2028 will be Duterte’s coronation year.
John Kenneth Galbraith, the economist and zealous defender of liberal democracy, provides the answer to those questions. He wrote that “we need to reshape the future by creating countervailing forces, particularly by ensuring that there is a diverse set of voices, interests and perspectives as counterweight to the dominant vision.”
We need a perspective that does not point out the inevitable ascent of Sara Duterte to the presidency. A nation starved of good leadership needs that and needs it badly.