During the Shangrila Dialogue held in Singapore in 2019, then-Defena ce Minister Mohamad bin Sabu (now the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security) gave a speech which has now turned into a legendary quip. When referring to the clash between the United States and China, he remarked, “when elephants fight, the grass will suffer," which is a mistransliteration of the Malay proverb “apabila gajah bertarung, pelanduk mati tersepit di tengah”. The phrase that he uttered did not make much sense, but if it was translated correctly, it would explain better why, in the event of the United States and China clash, the world would find itself trampled as collateral damage.
His remarks on the collateral damage suffered by others in the event of clashes between the US and China were on the spot, but unfortunately, his grammatical error-laden speech got lambasted by his political detractors (including me), and his elephant speech made into the local meme culture.
Emergence of China as Economic Superpower
The emergence of China into the global economic scene began in the mid-80s under then-President Deng Xiaoping. His economic reforms remarked a departure from the planned economies usually associated with communist regimes. His pragmatism in a quote attributed to him in the 60s, where he was to have said, “black cat or white cat, if it can catch mice, it's a good cat”.
US Role in China's Rise
The US administration on China is of a revolving view. Before we go any further, we need to understand the US' practice of diplomatic ambiguity on China, especially regarding the US' relations with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (RoC).
From this point onward, the term PRC and RoC will be used to refer to the US' geopolitical stance on the two geopolitical entities, and when China is used, referring to the PRC in general.
PRC
The PRC is the modern iteration of the Chinese Republic that emerged out of the ashes of the Chinese Civil War that saw the forces of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that kicked out the Nationalist forces from Mainland China.
ROC
The RoC was the prevailing Chinese government that rose in 1912 after the Chinese Revolution that was led by Dr Sun Yat-Sen in 1911.
The World in the 1980s
The arrival of the 1980s came with trepidation as just months before, the USSR invaded its neighbour, Afghanistan, on Christmas Eve of 1979. The spectre of the Cold War turning into another World War was very much on the horizon.
Years before, the US had just exited not one but two costly wars in the jungles of Southeast Asia (in Vietnam and Cambodia, both against communist regimes supported by the USSR.
The PRC, too, was in a conundrum. They realised their alliance with the USSR was slowly becoming a threat, with the USSR in the North and the Vietnamese in the South. Despite being a communist nation, the PRC's version of communism is Maoism, versus the Marxist-Leninism that was held by the USSR then.
China, under Deng Xiaoping, began to approach the United States and even allowed the opening of the US Embassy in Beijing in 1979. The move was a strategic win for the PRC and a major setback for the ROC.
When Vietnam decided to invade Cambodia in December 1978 to purge the genocidal Khmer Rouge, the PRC decided to intervene militarily in February 1979.
True to the adage an enemy of my enemy is my friend, the US and China began to forge a closer relationship. The US began exporting some of its military technology to the PRC, even when they were still supporting the RoC. In the late 80s, they were designing the prototype Jaguar tank with PRC and exported the civilianised version of the Blackhawk helicopters. All of these came to an end, though, when the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989.
But it did not matter as the Cold War ended with the collapse of the USSR at the end of 1991.
In the next few decades, the Sino-American relationship was marked by the free trade agreement and the US support of the PRC entering into the World Trade Organisation.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) and the PRC's Reaction
However, the US began to realise that the PRC was not going to follow what it had hoped to dictate. The US tried to introduce the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) with 11 other countries (including Malaysia). The TPPA conveniently left out the PRC as it was the US attempt to ring-fence the PRC. It did not matter, though, as the PRC started its own One Belt and One Road (OBOR) programme. Some of the participating nations included members of the TPPA, allowing Chinese-owned companies to participate in the economic bloc without being a member nation.
With the election of Donald Trump as the US President replacing Barrack Obama, the TPPA ended without much fanfare. Rightly so, as he probably realised the backdoor approach that PRC companies have used to enter the US market.
Joe Biden and the Russo-Ukraine War
Trump lost the next presidential election to Joe Biden. Biden's administration was more malleable towards China. The US pivoted its attention towards Russia. Especially since the US intelligence apparatus claimed to receive information about the impending invasion of Ukraine.
Biden's administration and the Democratic Party attempted to paint Trump as receiving support from Russia to get elected to be the US President. It didn't help that Trump was chummy with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin the founder of the Wagner Russian mercenary force. Prigozhin was allegedly behind the online media campaign that helped Trump win the previous presidential election.
Riding on what Trump claimed to be wasteful resources sent to Ukraine and that China was the US' actual adversary, amongst others, and helped by two attempted assassination attempts, Trump won the next presidential election. The rest is history.
US Tariff
With Trump now back in the US President, his first round of moves did not touch on any plans for tariffs. His rhetoric was focused on the war in Ukraine, colonising Greenland and Canada, and turning Gaza into a resort strip. Or so the world thought. On 3rd April, he announced the imposition of tariffs on a plethora of nations, including Malaysia.
Already, the tariff has strained US relations with many of those targeted, including Malaysia. Soon after the imposition of the tariff, the PRC announced that President Xi Jinping planned to visit Malaysia from 15 to 17 April. The announcement came after Malaysia announced it was planning to send Tengku Zafrul to the US to negotiate the imposition of the tariff.
Would the tariff work in the US' favour or would it backfire? How badly will we be impacted by this tariff? All of these remain to be seen.
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