THE stock market could track a cautious but steady course in the coming weeks as investors weigh domestic and global economic developments, an analyst said.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dipped by 0.35 percent on Friday to 6,464.67 but still ended up 1.84 percent week on week and 6.8 percent since the start of 2026.
RCBC Chief Economist Michael Ricafort said overall balance of payments position and final gross international reserves data for 2025 due today could influence sentiment.
Investors will also be looking ahead to preliminary fourth-quarter and full year gross domestic product (GDP) results out Jan. 29 and December and 2025 inflation figures to be released on Feb. 5.
Market participants will also be closely monitoring developments ahead of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) first policy meeting for this year on Feb. 19.
Central bank Governor Eli Remolona Jr. has signaled that another 0.25 percentage point rate cut could be on the table given below-target inflation and the need to prop up economic growth.
Should headline inflation remain well within the BSP’s 2-percent to 4-percent target range, further rate adjustments could provide additional support to liquidity and credit growth while helping stabilize the peso and import prices, Ricafort said.
Global monetary policy will also influence the local market with the US Federal Reserve flagging a single quarter-point cut this year, which goes against market participants’ expectations of two 25-basis point reductions in 2026.
Ricafort said the BSP could match this and extend its easing cycle, particularly if the peso remains stable or strengthens and global crude oil prices continue to hover near 5-year lows.
The US central bank will hold its first rate-rate setting meeting for 2026 on Jan. 27 to 28.
Upcoming US economic releases may also sway local sentiment, with Ricafort pointing to pending home sales (Jan. 21), economic growth and jobless claims (Jan. 22), personal income and spending (Jan. 22) and inflation (Jan. 22), among others.
The PSEi, Ricafort said, may remain sensitive to shifts in global rates, US economic momentum and domestic policy signals, particularly ahead of key economic releases and the next BSP meeting.
Any dovish surprises from either the BSP or the Fed could lift sentiment locally while higher-than-expected inflation or weaker peso performance could temper gains, he added.
