In a recent study, international scientists have determined that human-induced climate change intensified the heavy rainfall that triggered landslides in India’s southern state of Kerala, leading to the tragic deaths of over 200 people last month. The study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution group, highlights how climate change is making extreme weather events more severe and frequent.
The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall and Landslides
On July 30, 2024, the Wayanad region of Kerala experienced its worst disaster since 2018, when floods claimed the lives of more than 400 individuals. The recent landslides were primarily driven by intense monsoon downpours, which, according to the study, have become approximately 10 percent heavier due to the effects of climate change. The World Weather Attribution group, which focuses on analyzing the role of climate change in extreme weather events, released the findings on 31st July. Their research indicates that the increasingly heavy single-day rainfall events in Wayanad are a direct consequence of climate change.
Kerala’s Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, had previously attributed the high number of casualties to the unexpectedly intense rainfall. He noted that the region had received 572 millimeters of rain in just 48 hours, a figure that significantly exceeded the forecasted 204 millimeters. The deluge, which was far beyond expectations, overwhelmed the region and contributed to the devastating landslides.
Future Risks and Recommendations
The study further warns that if the global community fails to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, Kerala could see single-day rainfall intensify by another 4 percent. This increase in climate change-driven rainfall is likely to elevate the risk of landslides in the future, posing a continuing threat to vulnerable regions like Wayanad.
To mitigate the risk of such disasters, the study suggests several measures. These include minimizing deforestation and quarrying, reinforcing slopes that are prone to landslides, and constructing retaining structures to protect at-risk areas. Implementing these strategies could help reduce the impact of future landslides and safeguard the lives of those living in susceptible regions.
Contributing Factors and the Need for Adaptation
Experts have pointed out additional factors that may have exacerbated the landslides. The heavy rainfall that occurred in the two weeks leading up to the disaster likely softened the soil, making the region more prone to landslides. Furthermore, overdevelopment and unchecked tourism in Kerala have also been cited as contributing factors. The rapid urbanization and lack of regulation in these areas may have weakened the natural defenses against such disasters.
Maja Vahlberg, one of the authors of the study, emphasized the importance of not only mitigating climate change but also adapting to its impacts. She called for more stringent assessments of landslide risks and the implementation of better early warning and evacuation systems. Vahlberg's comments underscore the necessity of proactive measures to protect vulnerable communities from the growing threats posed by climate change.
The landslides in Kerala are the latest in a series of weather-related disasters in India that have been linked to climate change. From scorching heatwaves to intense monsoon rains and cyclones, the country is facing increasingly severe and unpredictable weather patterns. As the effects of climate change continue to intensify, it is crucial for governments and communities to take both preventive and adaptive actions to reduce the risks and protect lives. The findings of the World Weather Attribution group serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for global action to address the root causes of climate change and its devastating consequences.
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