A Ukrainian offensive still seems like a pipe dream. Instead, is the current pressure a way to force concessions out of a Kremlin forced to admit what's all over Russian social media: that petrol stations across Russia are running on empty because of those long-range strikes? Will Vladimir Putin compromise or double down?
And what do Crimeans themselves want? Most seemed happy to vote yes in a referendum to rejoin a Russia they only left in 1954. More broadly, what consequences for the entire Black Sea region, which since 2022 has alternated between periods of war, disruption and mutually agreed calm to allow both sides to ship goods? The Black Sea is of course shared with Turkey, which hosts next week's timely NATO summit.
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
