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By Murray Hunter
THE Middle East war is escalating into its third week, with all the Gulf states becoming involved.
The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20 per cent of the world’s flow of oil and gas, is now under a blockade by the Iranians, who want to share the financial pain of the conflict with the world as a method to put pressure on US President Donald Trump. Trump continues to sabre-rattle, emulating his old WWF wrestling rhetoric.
The new Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated by a US air raid, vowed to avenge the blood of martyrs with retaliation against Iran’s enemies with continued military resistance and strategic leverage, specifically ordering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
He also urged the Gulf Arab states to shut down US military bases or face major consequences.
Iran is now following its well-thought-out plan, True Promise IV and ramping up missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and US bases in the Gulf Arab states with newer generations of missiles than were seen at the beginning of the war.
These are now very effective as both Israel’s and the Gulf Arab states' missile defence systems have been mostly depleted.
World focus is now on the Strait of Hormuz, which will also have a great influence on the well-being of Malaysia.
Major global carriers like Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and COSCO have all suspended operations.
Prices of fuel and fertiliser are all going up in response, bringing concerns about bouts of inflation.
Some pundits are now saying that a prolonged blocking of the Strait of Hormuz will bring about a worldwide recession, with some of the most pessimistic are talking about a depression.
To make it worse, reports indicate that the Houthis in Yemen are just waiting to attack shipping to close the Red Sea once again.
This would prevent the use of the Suez Canal for shipping.
Iranian attacks on US bases and other interests in the Gulf Arab states have now brought civil unrest inside Bahrain, where Saudi Arabia has now mobilised its United Military Command troops to once again safeguard the Bahraini leadership.
There is a great sense of betrayal in the Gulf Arab states by the US, which will rebound in the region after the war.
With talk of the US sending in ground troops without any solid strategy, Trump does not have any off-ramp options to withdraw now. Iran does not want any ceasefire as it’s been holding back on its final objectives, firmly seeking retribution for the heinous war crimes committed against the nation, people, and leaders.
From a Malaysian perspective, there are several opportunities that are becoming very evident.
A moment of crisis should be seen as a moment full of opportunities, which society must be ready to embrace.
Opportunities for Malaysia
If the price of Brent oil goes up and is sustained at USD 100 per barrel over the year, due to an extended blockading of the Straits of Hormuz, this would raise Petronas revenue by RM 45-55 billion and increase profit after tax by RM 15-25 billion annually.
These additional funds could go some way towards paying off public debt and lowering the budget deficit, or assist in paying government subsidies to those in need.
Rising petroleum prices and Malaysia’s large-scale production of palm oil lends its way to producing biodiesel in Malaysia for the domestic market.
Maize and other crops could increase the use of biofuels in Malaysia.
The subsidy mechanism could assist in promoting more biofuel manufacturing and consumption in Malaysia.
Fourth-generation small modular nuclear reactors could enable more security in the nation’s electrical systems and assist in facilitating more EVs on the roads.
Malaysia requires approximately 5.5 million metric tonnes of fertiliser annually and imports 80-95 per cent of these annual requirements.
Just recently, the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu, called on citizens with landed properties to cultivate their own produce and rear livestock as a strategy against food supply disruptions. Perhaps it's time in Malaysia to have an ‘organic revolution’ and cultivate organic produce across the country.
Petrochemical-based fertilisers can be used for commodity crops, while market gardening and other consumer-oriented food production go down the road of chemical-free and organic cultivation.
This will add value to produce and be free of chemicals for consumers.
This is a mode that adds value to farmers' produce that consumers will appreciate more over time.
The government could support this move by extending training in organic agriculture throughout the country through agricultural colleges and TVET institutions.
Such a move will reduce Malaysia’s demand for imported fertilisers and add enormous value to agriculture in Malaysia at the same time.
With the “Oasis of stability” image gone in cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, wealthy expatriates are looking for a new abode.
In addition, investment funds will be on the move. The Gulf states attracted finance, skilled expatriates, and new sources of business and capital to their ‘dream’ cities. The Gulf’s reputation for safety and stability collapsed at the start of the war.
This creates a new opportunity for Malaysia. Forest City could be reimagined as a new ‘Gulf City’ adjacent to Singapore.
Good incentives, marketing and project management could make this happen. Malaysia also has Langkawi and even Labuan as additional possibilities.
This potential should be considered very seriously.
One of the major objectives of US President Trump’s war on Iran was to weaken BRICS. While the war has exposed some membership weaknesses inside BRICS itself, US-Israeli aggression upon one of its members, Iran, will lead to both a strengthening of the organisation and faster agenda implementation.
From this paradigm, the war on Iran is a war by the ‘West’ to maintain its neo-colonial dominance over the ‘south’.
BRICS will now come out as a much stronger ideological counterweight. Malaysia’s participation in BRICS will assist in enriching the nation’s trade without all the issues involved with US trade, such as tariffs and manufacturing overcapacity audits.
Finally, the current Middle East war, the Ukraine conflict, and the recent Thai-Cambodia border clashes indicate wars are now fought using completely new methods than just a decade ago.
The traditional costs and reliance on troops, expensive jet fighter aircraft, and large ships to construct an armed force are now being replaced with drones, short-range and ballistic missiles, coupled with technology-based surveillance and radar systems.
The Iranians have used the above configuration against two of the most equipped military forces in the world.
With design and imagination, Malaysia could reconfigure its forces in such a way and become a much more potent military force than it is presently, on the current meagre budget reserved for defence.
Much of the technology required could be generated locally through public university engineering research, where some of these facilities have a high international regard.
With the Middle East flaring up in war, the above suggestions are a way Malaysia could improve and restructure parts of the economy to minimise long-term pain.
At present, it's very difficult to see any ending of the war in the near future.
The US and Israel have no ‘off ramp’. The leadership of Iran is committed to continuing to drive the US out of the Gulf and disable Israeli military power.
If any escalation threatens Israeli existence, there are risks Israel will fire a nuclear weapon into Iran.
China is very aware of the situation and is concerned about the economic fallout.
U.S. President Trump’s meeting with the Chinese leader XI Jinping at the end of the month may provide an opportunity to negotiate an end to the conflict.
It’s very clear that to end this war requires a third-party mediator to facilitate an end to the hostilities. – March 16, 2026
The observations reflect the writer's personal insights and do not necessarily represent the official stance of The Vibes.com.
