The English Longbow emerged as a fearsome weapon in the 13th century. It is considered synonymous with England’s military dominance between the 13th and 15th centuries. It also marked a turning point in medieval warfare — England’s military might shifted from the armour-clad nobility to yeoman archers, so much so that Edward III pronounced a royal decree that “…every able-bodied man on Sundays and holidays shall practice archery, and all other sports are forbidden.”
The Battle of Agincourt (1415) perhaps best encapsulates this power shift as a small English force of about 7,000 men, of whom 5,000 were archers, defeated a much larger French army of armoured knights (comprising nearly 20,000 men).
The longbow turned commoners into crucial components of military power and fuelled an entire economy of trade and craftsmanship. Shakespeare immortalised this transformation in King Henry V’s speech before the Battle of Agincourt:
“We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:”
Today, the drone has become a fearsome weapon. It is redefining modern warfare in which much smaller nations are taking on the military might of superpowers and humbling them in the process. We have seen this in the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
David has successfully taken on Goliath because David has a new slingshot, and it is called a drone. Cheap mass-produced drones have managed to engage and bring massive armies and armadas to a halt.
Let us take the example of the Russian Bear. Russia had long been planning the invasion and annexation of Ukraine. It was given an excuse to do so by the ever-expanding NATO, which threatened to make Ukraine a member state and thereby reach Russia’s borders. The Russians launched what they called a “special military operation”, which in reality was a full-scale invasion by the infantry, artillery, air force and the navy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the operation would take a few days to complete. One saw on TV endless armoured columns moving into Ukraine. However, Russia made the cardinal mistake of underestimating the enemy. Ukraine was supported by the US and NATO, mainly in the supply of arms, ammunition and intelligence.
Gradually, the Russians got bogged down and started suffering heavy losses. Ukraine overcame its initial disadvantage and gradually brought the massive Russian army to a halt. A recent article in The Hindu states, “Ukraine rapidly adapted commercially available drones — originally designed for civilian purposes… into improvised reconnaissance and strike systems. These systems quickly evolved into a decisive combat capability, as small quadcopters and FPV (first-person view) drones were progressively weaponised and deployed as low-cost precision-guided munitions.”
Drones became active instruments of destruction, and by 2024, they had been fully integrated into almost every area of Ukrainian combat formations. From there on, the development of drones has moved significantly and rapidly. To cut a long story short, drones have changed the course of the war; from a retreating defensive posture, Ukraine is striking deep into Russia, its oil depots, airbases, ships and cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Russia’s “three-day” operation has turned into a war of attrition that is now in its fifth year.
The US-Israeli war with Iran is also worth mentioning in this context. The Americans moved a massive armada into the Gulf, amassed troops and deployed their formidable air force in the region, demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender. Subsequently, along with Israel, they took to the skies and decapitated the Iranian spiritual, military and intelligence leadership and threatened to erase Iran from the world map. The US did not take into account the civilisational spirit and history of the Iranians and their great progress in the development of hundreds of thousands of drones and missiles, their secondary and tertiary levels of leadership, their strategic and tactical ingenuity — hubris and its follies once again checkmated a superpower.
The Iranians attacked American bases and the infrastructure of US allies in the Gulf countries with drones and missiles. Israel was also hit with similar munitions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was a strategic masterstroke implemented by the threat of drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping; it managed to bring the entire global economy to its knees. Once again, the humble mass-produced drone in the hands of a committed army was successful in punching well above its weight and bringing a superpower and its entire military machine to a grinding halt.
As asymmetrical warfare shaped by drones transforms the battlefield, history teaches us that such disruptions invariably lead to political, social and economic changes. The English Longbow was a case in point. Similar examples can be found in history — the Mongol bows, gunpowder, the Lee-Enfield rifle etc. New empires and alliances are formed as power shifts and the old order is disrupted. How long this process takes is anybody’s guess, but ‘change’ is inevitable.
This brings me to the question of how all this will affect India. I have mentioned in my earlier articles about the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh confluence. As Pakistan’s influence on the US and China grows, so will its ambitions (which it has spelt out many times in respect of J&K). China only stands to gain from the misjudgments of the US and Russia and it remains aggressive in its stance on the North-East and Ladakh as well as in its trade with India.
In the 21st century — the emerging era of AI, robots, drones and energy transition — new alliances will be formed both militarily and economically. The US has already torn up the old global order of free trade and is steering this transition. Needless to say, it was China and its industrial and trade might which forced this shift.
In the 18th and 19th centuries, the “powers” raced to colonise the world and garner resources. Today, once again, the wheels of power are turning as the great powers vie for control and dominance. India must find its direction quickly in this tumultuous period. Our economy is getting caught in the middle-income trap with largely jobless growth. Most of our graduates are paid salaries below taxable income slabs and have to fight high inflation. Joblessness accompanied by inflation is a toxic formula which can be used by elements inimical to India’s interests to cause all kinds of strife. FPV drones have shown the kind of damage that can be done by a single operator.
J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat and the North-East are facing a continuous influx of drones being used for smuggling arms, ammunition and drugs. Fault lines in the North-East, J&K etc. should be brought under control with a spirit of inclusion and growth… we cannot afford to do otherwise. United, the nation needs to strengthen its alliances through strategic partnerships and diplomacy.
In the light of the Russian and US experience, India needs to rethink its short-term and long-term military strategies and also induct new weapon systems as well as countermeasures.