THIS is not the first time we have addressed the potential harm that may befall the Philippines from the ongoing El Niño climate phenomenon, but some developments in the past few days have raised awareness of the risk to a critical level, and it is useful to revisit the topic again. The frustration at the moment, and the reason we are inclined to comment on the situation again, is that despite having months of credible forecasts at its disposal, the government seems to have fallen into its all-too-typical pattern of reaction rather than proaction with respect to the calamity all of us will be facing in very short order.
For the past several months, climate scientists have been warning that this year’s El Niño, which is currently under way, could very well be record-breaking in terms of its severity, which is measured by the amount by which average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean exceed average levels. In a “normal” El Niño, the temperature typically ranges from 1.8 degrees Celsius to 2.5 C above the annual average in the Eastern Pacific. This year, according to data as of Sept. 4, the temperature is already 2.9 C above average and is rising, and could possibly reach as high as 3.5 C above average.
To be clear, the El Niño climate phenomenon is a natural process involving warming of the Eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America every two to seven years, and persisting for a number of months, typically peaking at about Christmastime, hence the name “El Niño.” The event changes weather patterns around the world; here in the Philippines, it usually results in widespread drought for a period of several months, with those months punctuated by very strong tropical storms, although these are generally fewer in number than in most years.
Last week, University of the Philippines researchers released findings through social media that this year’s El Niño will be particularly strong. This week, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council placed 106 areas in the Philippines under a “state of calamity” due to drought brought on by El Niño, and added warnings that much of the rest of the country may experience higher-than-normal temperatures, water shortages and possibly severe weather events for the next several months because of it. Likewise, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and the National Water Resources Board in the past several days have issued directives urging citizens to begin conserving water, and directing water utilities to begin seeking alternative or backup water supply sources, in anticipation of the expected drought.
The frustrating thing about all of this is that the emergence of El Niño now has been known for nearly a year, and the fact that this year’s event would be particularly strong has been known for at least five to six months. That the government squandered all that time in which it could have been proactive in making preparations is regrettable, to say the least. There should be no reason for the government to be now reacting to conditions that could have been anticipated and addressed months ago, but well, here we are.
Taken in light of the other economic pressures affecting the country, represented by the unexpectedly high inflation rate of 7.2 percent for September announced by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Tuesday, the possible implications of the El Niño phenomenon are indeed concerning. Widespread drought across the country, punctuated by heavy, destructive rains, will severely hamper agricultural production. The climactic effects will also likely increase consumers’ electricity bills; the primary reason for this is the likelihood that hydropower generation assets (mostly in Mindanao, but not exclusive to that part of the country) will be forced to reduce their output. The energy system will be put under additional strain due to the anticipated hot, dry weather across much of the country, as people increasingly rely on air-conditioning to help tolerate hotter weather conditions.
At this point, the average Filipino citizen might conclude that his or her government will be of no practical help in dealing with the climate calamity to come, and we would be hard put to disagree. We would suggest that everyone be aware that the odds of water shortages and possible electricity shortages are very good indeed, and plan for their individual needs accordingly. El Niño will pass, eventually; but it is likely not to do so for the next five or six months, which will be challenging for every Filipino.
