NOWADAYS, we use the term “domino effect” in our everyday conversations, to refer to significant consequences of initial actions. An individual’s actions, for example, might be perceived as having caused similar behaviors in others, leading to widespread change.
Now that an intense ongoing US-Israel war against Iran has escalated into a regional crisis affecting Middle Eastern countries and global energy markets, it might be good to remember that the term actually originated in the context of the Cold War. It described how one event can trigger a series of similar events, just like a falling row of dominoes. Over time, it has evolved to describe any situation where one small event leads to a series of related events.
It was not by chance that the term originated during the Cold War. War casts a long shadow. Every war has repercussions, beyond the death toll and the human tragedies. Conflicts among nations produce domino effects on global energy markets, food supplies, supply chains. There will be significant civilian casualties from violence, famine, and disease, as well as massive displacement and infrastructure destruction. These conflicts cause severe economic damage, disrupt access to basic services, and lead to long-lasting cultural shifts and political and social changes. The Gulf War in the 1990s, for instance, sent oil prices soaring, affecting households worldwide. More recently, the war in Ukraine disrupted grain exports, worsening hunger in Africa and Asia. Sadly, we seem not to have learned from the past.
The current conflict began on Feb. 28, 2026, and has rapidly escalated, involving missile strikes, drone attacks, naval engagements, and air raids across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE. Conflicts in agricultural hubs ripple through global food chains, raising costs and worsening hunger in vulnerable regions. It has disrupted oil exports, causing crude prices to surge over 42 percent, and has triggered mass evacuations, corporate closures, and humanitarian crises.
As a result, the war severely impacts seafarers, particularly Filipino crew members who make up a quarter of the global workforce, by causing extreme physical risks, including death, injury, and hostage-taking in conflict zones like the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Seafarers face severe psychological strain, job insecurity, and stranded vessel scenarios, with increasing rights to refuse deployment in designated “war-risk” zones.
As of March 2026, thousands of seafarers are stranded in high-risk zones, such as the Persian Gulf, with some fatalities and injuries reported.
War causes unpredictable disruptions, leading to delayed crew changes, and extended contracts against the crew’s will. The Mission to Seafarers, an international Christian welfare charity serving merchant crews in over 200 ports across 50 countries, reported that anxiety and fear are highly prevalent among crew members in danger zones. Over 26 percent of seafarers suffer from depression due to isolation and the threat of attack.
Shipping lanes become dangerous, insurance premiums skyrocket, and crews face risks of being caught in blockades or attacks. A simple voyage can suddenly feel like navigating a war zone. Under maritime regulations, seafarers have the right to refuse work in identified “Warlike Operations Areas” or high-risk zones without losing wages or facing penalty, especially as declared by countries like the Philippines.
Accessing compensation for damages or loss becomes a challenge due to the transient nature of their work and, at times, slow-moving insurance coverage, despite the high risks involved.
War’s repercussions go beyond the death toll and the human tragedies, its “domino effects” on global energy markets, food supplies, supply chains. When the war involves powerful nations, the consequences are multiplied a hundredfold, and impacts the rest of the world, including ordinary peace-loving citizens: Inflation, shortages, and instability seep into daily life. Even those far from the frontlines pay the price in disrupted livelihoods and diminished security.
Wars involving major oil or gas producers can disrupt supply, spike prices, and destabilize economies worldwide. For instance, sanctions or blockades can choke off energy flows, forcing countries to scramble for alternatives.
Wars often cut off shipping routes, damage infrastructure, and create uncertainty that slows trade. Even industries far removed from the conflict, like technology or manufacturing, feel the strain.
In other words, the term “domino effect” captures the essence of interconnectedness in events, originating from Cold War politics but now applicable in many areas of life. Nothing happens in isolation. The metaphor of dominoes falling in succession effectively illustrates how interconnected events can cascade from a single trigger, whether in politics, economics, or social dynamics. Decision makers, leaders, and even peace-loving citizens like us, must pause and reflect on the possible consequences of our actions, and act with care and circumspection, exercising diligence in all that we do.
As Neville Chamberlain said, “In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers.”