VICE President Sara Duterte’s lead over former vice president and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup has narrowed to 7 percentage points, the smallest recorded by OCTA Research in its 2026 surveys.
Duterte obtained 40 percent against Robredo’s 33 percent in the third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 among 1,200 adult Filipinos nationwide.
The seven-point margin was down from 11 points in the first quarter, when Duterte registered 46 percent against Robredo’s 35 percent, and nine points in the second quarter, when the figures stood at 43 percent and 34 percent, respectively.
OCTA said Duterte’s preference had declined by 6 percentage points over the three survey rounds, while Robredo’s remained relatively stable, ranging from 33 percent to 35 percent.
The proportion of respondents who chose neither candidate or did not know whom to vote for rose to 26 percent in the latest survey, from 22 percent in the second quarter and 19 percent in the first quarter.
The growing undecided bloc suggests that voters moving away from Duterte have not necessarily shifted their preference to Robredo, OCTA said.
Despite the narrowing margin, Duterte remained ahead nationally, with her seven-point lead outside the survey’s plus-or-minus 3-percentage-point margin of error.
The survey results also showed significant regional differences in the hypothetical matchup.
Robredo led Duterte in the National Capital Region, with 39 percent against 32 percent, and in Balance Luzon, where she received 49 percent against Duterte’s 24 percent.
Duterte, meanwhile, maintained a commanding lead in Mindanao, with 71 percent against Robredo’s 2 percent. She also led in Visayas, 46 percent to 27 percent.
By socioeconomic grouping, Robredo led among Class ABC respondents, with 40 percent against Duterte’s 32 percent.
She also made an 11-point gain among Class E respondents, rising from 31 percent in the second quarter to 42 percent in the latest survey, while Duterte’s preference fell from 51 percent to 41 percent.
OCTA said the two were statistically tied in Class E, although the relatively small sample of 109 respondents warranted caution in interpreting the results.
Duterte continued to lead in Class D, which accounts for roughly 4 in 5 adult Filipinos, with 41 percent against Robredo’s 31 percent. Twenty-eight percent in this group were undecided.
The survey also showed Robredo narrowly leading among women, 38 percent to 35 percent, and urban residents, 38 percent to 35 percent. Duterte led among men, 45 percent to 28 percent, and rural residents, 47 percent to 25 percent.
Duterte maintained her advantage among voters below 45 years old, while Robredo held narrow leads among those aged 45 and older.
OCTA said the findings should be treated as an early measure of public sentiment rather than a prediction of the May 2028 elections.
The survey was conducted while Duterte’s impeachment trial was ongoing. However, OCTA cautioned that its findings did not establish whether the proceedings influenced respondents’ voting preferences.
Robredo has repeatedly said she would not seek national office in 2028 and was likely to pursue another term as Naga City mayor.
OCTA noted that the hypothetical matchup therefore measured Robredo’s standing among voters rather than support for an actual presidential candidacy.
The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.
